In what could be a national bellwether, Democrats are celebrating the special election victory of Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan Tuesday in New York’s 19th House district race over Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro. Ryan will head to Washington to finish the term of now-Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado.
That was just one closely-watched outcome of the rare second summer primary in New York.
Jay Jacobs, the head of the New York State Democratic Party, spoke with WAMC’s Ian Pickus Thursday.
Overall, how do you think your party did in this latest primary?
Well, I think it was a very good night. I think that certainly Pat Ryan's win is something to give us a lot of encouragement going into the fall. There's been a lot of naysaying all spring about how terrible Democrats are going to do. But I think voters are starting to get the message and beginning to understand that the Democrats are delivering across the board, the Inflation Reduction Act, now the president's decision to forgive $10,000 in student debt, never mind the infrastructure $1 trillion bill that was passed earlier on. Voters are beginning to see these things. And I think we're going to have a very good election this fall.
In many national accounts of Ryan's campaign and victory, they focused on the fact that Ryan made abortion rights and reproductive rights a centerpiece of his campaign. Do you think that's the right message for Democrats this fall?
I think it's one of the right messages. I don't think it's the only message. But I think that, you know, voters, generally Americans, are upset with what the conservative extreme Republicans have been able to accomplish by loading up the Supreme Court with people who think the way they think. And the outcome, the result was overturning Roe v. Wade, that's particularly upsetting. That was the law of the land for almost 50 years. And every poll shows, and it's, you know, overwhelming, that people believe in a woman's right to choose. And this these draconian measures that are being put into place in some of the states to take away that right, is something that's going to motivate voters, and Republicans are scared to death over it. And they should be.
The generic poll of who Americans would like to see running Congress is basically even now. But Democrats also took a lot of redistricting hits in some key states. If you were handicapping the midterms, how likely do you think it is that Democrats will hold the House?
Well, I think it's a toss-up. I think we can hold the House, I don't think we're going to make much in the way of gains, but you never know. You know something? The interesting thing about all of these predictions is they're predicated on today's reality. Over the next several weeks, and into October, you know, the world changes, things happen. And those things impact the voters’ mood, the basic political environment, so we just don't know. And I would say this: if the Republicans do take the House, it won't be by a lot. And if Democrats hold the House, I think also it won't be by a lot. But I think we have a lot of promise and hope in the Senate. I think we'll pick up some seats, and that'll make legislating a bit easier, certainly, if we do hold the House.
Some of the programs that you've mentioned in this interview are much more popular with Americans than the current president is, Joe Biden. Do you worry about Biden's low polling and the drag it might have on Democratic candidates?
Well, I think that's going to change over the next several weeks. Look, you know, they've been doing a hit job on Joe Biden since he took office, number one, whether he was legitimate or not, they've been questioning that and that certainly motivates the Republican base anyway in their dislike for Joe Biden. But the other piece of it, these nonsensical claims that you know, he's not with it, he's too old. Look, this guy has been accomplishing so much more than recent presidents with a very slim majority in the House, and equal numbers, 50-50, in the Senate. I mean, it's incredible what he's gotten done. Look, has it been smooth all the time? Has it been without its bumps? Of course not. No administration, particularly early on, is without, you know, some missteps here and there, but those being the focus is generally an unfair way of looking at it. I think the guy has done a great job. And I think the polls will ultimately reflect that and I'm confident that going into the fall he'll be an asset and not the liability that some people are thinking.
Let me ask you for your read on some other primaries from Tuesday. Sean Patrick Maloney faced a challenge from his left from state Senator Alessandra Biaggi. He, of course, is leading the Democrats’ November midterm efforts in the House. In his victory speech, he said, you know, basically moderates won that night, in the form of his victory. Do you agree?
Yeah, I do. Look, you know, the socialists, and the folks on the far left, they have their constituency where they will win. But they're in very small pockets. They're in places like New York City, in specific districts, and they're going to do well there. And they always will. That's not unique. That's not new. That's not a trend. That just is what it is. But in the overwhelming swath of districts across the state, and out in the suburbs and rural areas upstate, overwhelmingly moderates will win. And because that is the overwhelming view of Democrats, never mind the general public. You know, we tend to be moderate progressives in the Democratic Party. And that's what you're going to see in primary. So people like Senator Biaggi, you know, who challenged Maloney with AOC’s support, that was her prime race. And, you know, she's very anxious always to take credit for all of her achievements. Well, this was a circumstance she's been pretty quiet about, because, you know, they lost overwhelmingly because it's the wrong district for them. This is not their constituency. They can do well when there's low-hanging fruit. And, you know, they've demonstrated that and they're a permanent part of the political discourse in our party and in the country. And I believe it should be, because there are people who believe that way, but it's not the mainstream, and overwhelmingly, you know, between 70 and 80% of Democrats are moderate. And that is that is proven primary after primary and district after district across the state and across the country.
Well, are you glad that the AOC wing is a permanent part of the Democratic Party? Or would you prefer that it isn't?
No, you know, what, I think we need lots of voices. I don't have any objection to — in fact, I encourage it, I think that…look, the Democratic Party, can sometimes push too, or hold too tight to the status quo, because it's safe. What the progressives, the folks on the far left do for us, is they keep pushing us, they keep shoving us, much like a tugboat shoves an ocean liner into the right place. Now, we don't go all the way. If we followed them all the way, I think we go off a cliff. But I think they are, in a certain sense, the conscience of the party. And I respect them tremendously. I just don't agree, you know, with how far they want to go. Now the folks, the socialists, I think, are just off the charts, because I just think they're just not headed in the right direction at all. But I think those that progressive on the far left, that push for universal health care and programs like that, I think they're well intentioned. I think their motivation is good. What motivates them is good. And I'm glad they're part of the party. I just don't think that they should be directing the party and deciding where we go, because I don't think voters agree with the full direction that they want to take us.
Were you surprised by the margin of victory for Jerry Nadler over his longtime Manhattan colleague Carolyn Maloney?
Well, I think we began to see that as we got closer to the election, people had to make a choice. And with the New York Times endorsement in particular and some other prominent endorsements, I think it became clear. I think lots of people were very unhappy that they had to make that choice, because I think there were lots of constituents who like Carolyn Maloney and of course, Jerry Nadler. So I think this whole redistricting situation was a mess. And it's just unfortunate that it resulted in that contest having to happen.
Let me go to the North Country now. Democrat Matt Castelli, a former CIA officer, won the Democratic primary there to take on Congresswoman Elise Stefanik. And he says it's one of the most important races in the country. Do you think that a Democrat has any chance of knocking Stefanik off?
Well, you know, I would say it's a tough race. It's not an impossible race. Again, I think he's a very attractive candidate. I think his background is strong. I think that, you know, that national security experience is something that voters who might otherwise be inclined to support Stefanik will respect and like, and they may even decide to go with. I think it all depends upon the message, the rationale that he presents to the voters in his district, and it's got to be about things that connect with them personally. And if he does that, I think he can win. And if he does, why he's taken out a very powerful and important Republican leader of the extreme, right, you know, part of the Trump faction of the Republican Party, and I think that would be impressive. So it's not impossible. I think that, you know, it's an uphill battle, but I think you can do it, and he's the right candidate to get it done. If anybody can do it, I think he can.
Do you think the Democratic Party will spend in that race, though, knowing that the odds might be against it?
Well, you know, what happens in all of these races, not just that one, is we do a lot of polling. So we want to see where our best chances are, where we have to devote resources to defend incumbents and seats that we've held. And then at the same time, where our best opportunities are. Our resources are limited. You can't spend in every area that you want to. If we can see some polling that demonstrates that Stefanik’s got weaknesses that can be used against her and we might win that seat, then yeah, we'll spend some money there. Sure.
Governor Hochul is marking her first year in office as we speak, and she's running for full term in November. How confident are you that she will win that race over Lee Zeldin?
Well, she's got a lot of things going for her. Number one, she's really done a great job. She's changed the tone in Albany. She's far more collaborative. She gets a lot done. Sometimes the press doesn't cover it as much. I'm not blaming the press. I just think that we just don't have that the coverage that she should get on some of the things that she has done.
And I think that the other thing she's got going for her, she's very likable. When people get to meet her and get to know her, they like her immediately. So being likable helps in politics, not perhaps the most important thing, but I think a very important component of getting elected. And then of course, on the other end, she's running against Lee Zeldin, who is extreme. He he's a guy that right after the January 6th insurrection, he voted against certifying Joe Biden's election. He's continued to maintain the election was stolen. That's a crackpot, frankly, I mean, I'm sorry, that is a crackpot. If you believe that, and I don't even think he believes it. I think he just feels that's how he can get support from other crackpots that he's looking for. That's complete nonsense, that the election was stolen, and they all know it. Even Trump's people knew it, yet he stuck to that.
Then you take a look at his views on abortion. You know, he favored what just happened with Roe v. Wade. That might sell in Mississippi or Alabama, but it's you're not going to sell in New York state. And so I think that he's on the wrong side of that issue. Then you turn to guns. Here's a guy who's all, you know, raging about, you know, crime and all the rest of it. And he doesn't want to do anything to support common sense gun restrictions. And he's against red flag. He's against everything that needs to get done to stop the gun violence. People are getting shot in the cities, they're getting shot everywhere in this country, in schools and the rest. And here you got a guy that's just absolutely opposed to any kind of regulation of guns. And that doesn't sell in New York State either.
I mean, there are people that will agree with him, and that's who he's playing to. But he's playing to a very small slice of the New York electorate. So in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one, and Democrats are basically half of the voting population to start with, he's in a tough spot. So, you know, I'm not looking at the polls, and I'm not becoming arrogant about it, but I just don't see where his path is to win because to win, you have to win over voters. And that means that Kathy Hochul has to have done a bad job and it's quite the opposite. She's done a great job. Kathy Hochul is likable. And I think the voters will like her. And on top of which result Lee Zeldin’s views and things that he supports are completely opposed to what the mainstream New York voters support. So I just don't see how you translate that into a win for him. So I feel pretty good about the election coming up, but we're gonna fight hard.
OK, last thing, Jay. Your Republican counterpart, Nick Langworthy, the GOP committee chair, won a primary this week over Carl Paladino for Congress. Will we ever see you run for Congress?
No. I'm happy where I am. I run a business. I don't I don't do this, I make no income in this. I do it as a volunteer. So I have to earn a living. And I choose to do that in the summer camp profession that I'm in and I enjoy it and I enjoy the job that I do. I love working with people and I love helping other people go to Congress. But I think that there are really qualified people in our party to do that, and I don't feel the need to do it.
I congratulate the Nick Langworthy on his victory. Again, when I use the term crackpot I think that certainly, Carl Paladino qualifies for that, and I’m at least glad that in that one district in New York, Republican voters showed enough common sense not to vote for somebody that is just that awful in his philosophy, and then what he espouses. And, you know, we'll see how it all turns out in the election, of course. I'm hoping a Democrat wins at the end in that seat, but I think that's one small good sign for normalcy, because I think, ultimately, you know, we're two different parties, we believe in different things. But I think it's essential that you have a strong Republican Party, as well as, of course, a strong Democratic Party, because that's how the system works best. When you have a Republican Party, as we have now, that's been taken over by such an extreme fringe group that are talking such nonsense, don't believe in facts, and, you know, it's actually a crazy party, then democracy's got a real problem. So any signs that I can see of improvement on that end of the spectrum I welcome and I think that's a good thing for our country generally.
