Initial jobless claims fell more than originally forecast which has had a positive effect on the stock market, and presumably on the economy. The drop was approximately 17,000 from the prior week and 7,000 down from the economists’ predictions. The continuing applications for unemployment were up to 1.875 million which is an increase of about 6,000, so in relative terms that is a very small number.
The excitement around the Harris-Walz campaign continues to bubble, and the Trump campaign appears flat and maybe one might say that they were caught flat-footed by both President Biden dropping out and the selection of Tim Walz, but fundamentally I think what is causing them to appear flat-footed is the fact that there is a surprising level of enthusiasm for Vice President Harris, certainly not the level I anticipated. This is showing in terms of the enthusiasm of the crowds at her rallies, the vitality of social media, and, of course, her fundraising. This is going to make for a very interesting race.
You can’t help but love the headlines, such as “Republicans think Trump is having a nervous breakdown over Kamala Harris.” If that is true, that certainly adds another wrinkle to this already bizarre election cycle. It is hard to tell whether this is just sensationalism, or there is any truth to it.
The real test in this race is going to be which of the tickets comes up with a rationale deliverable plan on many issues, including the economy, inflation, the border and our various international issues, in particular, the Ukraine and the Middle East. I am anxiously awaiting these proposals so that they can be debated rationally, as opposed to reducing themselves to name calling.
There have been some fundamental changes in the supply chain as many corporations looked since the 70s to produce overseas essentially ignoring the distances and the cost related with travel. That appears to be changing as we are seeing more re-shoring particularly as it relates to, if you will, necessities like chips, medical supplies, etc. I think this is a good thing as it should mean more good paying jobs for Americans.
It appears the Trump campaign was hacked back in June and Politico was sent a substantial amount of data. This appears to be the typical ongoing process that we have seen in recent years as these campaigns are subject to hackers likely because of the vast amount of exposure they get on the internet creating “leaks” if you will.
The Olympics were positive and successful for the US in terms of medals, and for France also in terms of medals, but equally as important they came off very successfully and in truth, it was simply fun to watch.
Hamas has announced they will not participate in the negotiations for a cease-fire, blaming Mr. Netanyahu’s new demands, the recent attack in Gaza, and generally their inability to see how this ends since Israel will not put anything on the table in terms of the two-state solution or some other solution. It is impossible to determine where Mr. Netanyahu is going as none of this virtually makes any sense, and I would repeat earlier comments that Hamas is as much an active army as it is an idea, and until there is a solution to how the Gazans are going to be treated, I don’t think we are going to see a solution.
A recent article in the New York Times pointed out that there are 138 empty pharmacies amounting to 1,000,000 square feet. This is down from approximately 222 vacant pharmacies in the last four years. This has been caused in large part by the mergers in the industry, and I think the over population of pharmacies as you can find one virtually on every street in major cities and even in small towns you can see what appears to me to be an enormous number of pharmacies versus the population.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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