We’re once again at the end of a calendar year. Which means in sports terms, it’s when we often look back at the biggest moments of the year, or perhaps make predictions for the future. Given that it was both an Olympic year and an annual where sport and the larger social unrest seemed to nearly overlap, I’ll refrain from that retrospective. And trying to postulate on what comes next is at best a fool’s errand. All we do know is that somehow, things will change.
But after the events of last weekend, it’s worth spending this final of 2024 on one of the most seismic shifts of the past year, the launch of the 12 team Division I-A college football playoff. This was the most anticipated change in college football since the advent of the forward pass, one that would broaden the scope of the sport and usher in a new era of elimination football where the best in the nation would decide the championship on the field, a series of competitive games that would allow for the crème to rise to the top based on performance, not the limitations of a four-team event, where we were left to wonder what could have been if more teams got in.
Well, now we know. Because last weekend’s first four games of the playoffs were about as compelling as watching a tax audit. Almost all of them were effectively over by halftime, and most before that. Penn State scored 21 points on visiting SMU before some people got to their seats. Notre Dame made Indiana look like the losingest team in Division I history that it is. Where the four host teams were collectively favored by a gaudy 35 points, they over doubled that in winning by a total of 77. Remember, this shift to 12 teams was done because allegedly there were so many deserving teams that could win it all if only given a chance. Turns out, not so much. Also not enjoying the games so far are the three or so teams from the SEC left out for conference parity, including Alabama and South Carolina, both of whom would argue they’d have played way better than SMU and Clemson, who got throttled by Texas. And not to be a killjoy, but the second round may not be much better, with two of the four games sporting mismatches on paper. So plan your New Year’s accordingly.
Those in the NCAA football establishment might tell a different story of year one, and they’d have some ammo. The on-campus environments were pretty great and translated well to television. Speaking of which, games pulled in solid ratings, including the over 14 million that watched Saturday night’s matchup of Ohio State and Tennessee. I’m sure the numbers dwindled as the spreads grew, but at the very least, the public was interested. We’ll see if that continues if round two doesn’t improve upon the start. And even critics would suggest big improvements could be made by changing the criteria by which teams are chosen, allowing the committee to pick the best teams instead of the most deserving, if that makes sense.
Even with a rough start, the college football playoffs aren’t going away. If anything, they’ll eventually expand to 16 teams to get more first round home games. In the end, the playoffs were as much about generating more money as it was competitive equity. If we really wanted the best teams to play for the title, we probably already had the perfect model – four teams play three games for a champion. That model had greater chance for competitive games and less chance of an undeserving winner. But that’s not really what big time college sports are all about right now – and perhaps this is my only look ahead in the 2025 crystal ball. Revenue has finally infiltrated college sports in ways once thought unimaginable. Once being like three years ago. That change means Division I universities will both be able to and also be required to find a way to financially reward athletes in namely football and basketball, chasing dollars as much as competitive matchups – although one could argue they go together. Meaning this inaugural foray into expanded college playoff football, while somewhat unwatchable, is both a reflection of where sports is in 2024 and where it seems destined in 2025 and beyond.
That, I suppose, is as close as I’ll come to a prediction. Anything more would be a fool’s errand
Keith Strudler is the Dean of the School of Communication and Media at Montclair State University. You can follow him at @KeithStrudler
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