The word history gets thrown around a lot in the context of sports. Sometimes it’s subjective, like calling someone the best player in history. Other times, it’s related to time or distance. Like someone who breaks a track or swimming world record. And yet other times, it’s about a statistical anomaly, something that has never happened before because it so mathematically implausible. Like a win streak or home run streak or pattern that just shouldn’t be.
That is what we almost experienced Monday night, as the Boston Celtics attempted to become the first team in NBA history to come back from a 3-0 deficit in a best of seven playoff series, in this case against the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. They did what most would assume the hardest part in that upward climb, winning two of three on the road, including a last second win in Game Six that most assumed would break any remaining will on the Miami bench, especially with decisive Game Seven to be played in Boston. You could almost taste Game One of the NBA Finals between Boston and Denver.
That lasted until the first possession of Monday’s game, when Boston star Jason Tatum rolled his ankle in a drive to the basket. He recovered and played the majority of the game, but went only 5 for 13 to score 14 on the night. That was part of a larger Boston shooting narrative that would kindly be categorized as inconsistent, and the Heat went on to a 103-84 win in a game that wasn’t that close. Thus ended the prospect of seeing sports history, the first team to rebound from an 3-0 deficit in the NBA Playoffs.
No one expected this series to end up this way, as Boston was the far more talented team. Certainly, once Miami took the first three games, no one expected Boston to come back, especially after basically lying down in what most called a must-win Game Three. And of course, almost no one expected Miami to fly up to Boston and win Game Seven after grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory in Game Six. If nothing else, the series has been a confluence of surprises.
There are a long, long list of reasons why teams don’t rebound from 3-0 deficits. The first, and most obvious, is that if you’re down by that margin, it’s fairly obvious that the other team is much better – or at least playing so. Second, the psychological toll of trying to win three straight elimination games is more than even most professional athletes can take. It’s like running the first mile of a marathon when you don’t have any water. And third, you’re truly up against the laws of probability. The chance of winning a coin flip four times in a row is about 6%. That’s in an environment without human frailty and long plane flights and abusive fans. This is why isn’t never happened before, and why only 13 teams have ever come back down 3-1.
But this time seemed to be different, if for no other reason than the fact that Boston, the two seed in the East, was always more talented than 8th seeded Miami. This wasn’t some kind of shocking upset, but rather the better team finally attempting to play near its potential. Which is also why this possible break through moment in history felt so unsatisfying. If a team comes back from an impossible deficit, I want it to be an underdog doing the impossible. In this case, it was the big bad favorite denying the little guy a shot at the crown. It felt like rewarding someone for getting a 100 on the math final even though they slept through every class but happens to be a genius. Which is why you’d be hard pressed to find someone outside of New England rooting for Boston on Monday night, even with a shot at history on the line. Because if there’s one thing we like more than history in sports, it’s the underdog.
And that’s what we’ll get Thursday night as Miami travels to Denver for a Championship Series most assume will end with far more predictability and less drama than Miami’s last. Still, Miami is only the second 8th seed to ever make the NBA Finals, and they’d be the first to win. So regardless of Boston’s loss, history is still on the line.
Keith Strudler is the director of the School of Communication and Media at Montclair State University. You can follow him on twitter at @KeithStrudler
The views expressed by commentators are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of this station or its management.