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The state of the energy transition

Tony Webster
/
Flickr

The world is in a global transition from a fossil-fuel-based energy system to a zero-carbon, renewable energy system. Renewable sources including solar, wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal power form the backbone of energy production along with nuclear power. Heating, transportation, and industrial processes are shifting to run on electricity rather than burning fossil fuels.

In 2026, where does the US stand with respect to the energy transition? The answer is complicated. The Trump administration is opposed to the energy transition and has inflicted considerable damage upon it.

Some analysts claim that the U.S. power sector is still on track to reduce emissions substantially by 2035. Others find that the U.S. will achieve less than half of the emissions reductions it would have under Biden-era policies.

Nevertheless, clean energy is booming despite the fact that the administration eliminated tax credits for wind and solar power. Economic forces, the war in Iran, and other factors are still predominant. However, projections vary all over the map saying U.S. clean power additions over the next 15 years could range from 53 gigawatts per year all the way down to 3 gigawatts per year.

The factors that will make or break the next decade of the energy transition depend upon unknown market and political forces. Whether tax credits ever get restored is unknown. Many experts say that clean energy can and will just compete on price and that the main requirement from the government will be in the area of permitting reform.

As for the actual state of the energy transition, the reality is that no one really knows.

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References:
So, where exactly does the US energy transition stand?

Randy Simon has over 30 years of experience in renewable energy technology, materials research, superconductor applications, and a variety of other technical and management areas. He has been an officer of a publicly-traded Silicon Valley company, worked in government laboratories, the aerospace industry, and at university research institutions. He holds a PhD in physics from UCLA. Dr. Simon has authored numerous technical papers, magazine articles, energy policy documents, online articles and blogs, and a book, and holds seven patents. He also composes, arranges and produces jazz music
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