Africa is experiencing a boom in solar energy that is largely unaccounted for in any official statistics. It is primarily composed of rooftop arrays and other small systems and is mostly in sub-Saharan Africa. The rapid buildout is driving solar generation to record levels but is largely untracked.
Using customs data to track the flow of solar equipment to Africa from China, which is where most of the equipment comes from, analysts found that this year Africa will add the equivalent of 17 gigawatts of new solar capacity, which is more than enough to meet the continent’s average yearly growth in electricity demand. Thirty-six countries will install record amounts of solar in 2026; nineteen of them will more than double the amount they added last year.
In countries with unreliable power grids, diesel generators have been the go-to for coping with frequent blackouts. With the war in Iran driving up diesel prices, small solar systems have become a far more attractive option. Running a diesel generator for three months can cost as much as buying the equivalent solar panels.
In almost every country in Africa, more than half of the solar capacity installed since 2023 is distributed among consumers, making it almost impossible to track. Without official statistics, African countries are not taking into account the rise in distributed solar while making their future energy plans. The ongoing energy transition in Africa is chaotic and disruptive, not at all the orderly process envisioned in national strategies. Countries are likely to underinvest in batteries and grid infrastructure for storing and distributing solar energy and are likely to overinvest in fossil fuels.
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References:
In Africa, a Growing Underground Solar Buildout
