Consumer sentiment rises in latest Siena College Research Institute poll

A new poll finds New Yorkers in step with "skyrocketing" national consumer sentiment.  

The New York State Index of Consumer Sentiment now stands at 76.9, up 2.8 points from the

last measurement in the fourth quarter of 2023. Siena College Research Institute director Don Levy says future outlook is at its highest since June 2021.

"What we're seeing is an increase in how consumers feel about the marketplace, their willingness to spend," said Levy. "The national story is really a huge story, up dramatically over the last quarter, up almost 28 points in the last year. And at a point now, where there is more optimism than pessimism across the country. New York has a slightly different story. Our consumer sentiment never went as low as the nation did years ago. But we've had a gradual increase over the last couple of quarters to now we're at a point slightly below the national sentiment, but still slightly more optimism than there is pessimism across the state. Now you have to temper this little bit. The numbers are meaningfully higher amongst our friends in New York City than here upstate, but even still, the upstate numbers that we're seeing are greater than they have been, going all the way back since June of '21."

Levy says that the effects of higher priced housing, utilities and groceries cast a shadow upon that rosy picture, with 50% of all New Yorkers saying that current gasoline prices are having a very serious or somewhat serious impact on their financial condition. 77% of state residents indicate that the amount of money they spend on groceries is having either a very serious or somewhat serious impact on their finances. 67% say that housing costs are having a very serious or somewhat serious impact on their financial condition. And 60% of residents say that their utility costs are having at least a somewhat serious impact on their finances.

Levy says residents also have to add in so-called "new necessities" including entertainment services, streaming and cell phones.

"One out of seven New Yorkers feel as though each and every one of those monthly expenses is causing them a serious financial hardship. It's not surprising that the consumer sentiment score amongst that group of 15% of New Yorkers is significantly lower, it's about 12 points lower than the statewide average. So they remain, certainly at least 15% of New Yorkers who are desperately affected by these high prices, that are not sharing in this consumer sentiment increase that itself across the entire state," Levy said. 

The poll was conducted between February 20 and March 5.

Levy gauges what the findings may suggest as we head toward November’s presidential election.

"It's really an interesting conundrum. Certainly, we have seen in many surveys that we've done, that Americans in general feel as though Donald Trump was better on the economy and would be better if elected again, than is Joe Biden. That said, increasing consumer sentiment at this point in time, is something that will buoy the Biden campaign and will support Biden's argument that it's taking some time for his policies to lead to a better economy. So we're going to see a continuing debate over the economy. Is it good? Is it bad? And this particular reading of consumer sentiment increasing nationally, increasing here in New York, is going to tend to support Biden's argument and belie Trump's argument to some degree. But certainly, we're going to continue to see the two candidates, argue over 'Is the economy good or bad, is it good or bad for you?’ And which of the two candidates is going to be a better steward of the economy moving forward," Levy said.

Here's a link to the poll.

Siena College Research Institute