Rapid electrification in New York state is causing a surge in power demand, according to a report from the New York Independent System Operator.
As renewable resources struggle to replace fossil fuels that are being phased out, the electric grid is coming under strain.
Rich Dewey, President and CEO of the NYISO, says the report, "Power Trends 2023: A Balanced Approach to a Reliable Grid," details the most important issues impacting reliability of the electric system during the grid in transition.
"The electric industry in New York state is undergoing a dramatic transformation, largely driven by the climate legislation that was passed by New York State in 2019," said Dewey. "The supply stack, which is historically based on fossil fuel-based generation, is largely being replaced by renewable supply, based on wind, solar and storage."
Dewey says the transition is leading to lower reliability margins across the state, with New York City being the most affected area.
“We do anticipate that through the course of the operating day, there's going to be some risk of failures. And we try to make sure that we've got adequate backup supply ready, so that we can manage that and not experience a disruption of power," Dewey said. "Certainly, we work in close concert, with other regions. And if there is a disruption in one of our neighboring territories, we stand at the ready to help them out just like they could help us out. But we are very much interconnected. There's three interconnections in the United States. One is the Eastern interconnection, which is east of the Rockies. And then there's a Western interconnection that's west of the Rockies. And then Texas has its own isolated grid, but from a standpoint of being completely interconnected, the Eastern interconnection is highly dependent on each other and we work together to make sure that all of our customers maintain service.”
"Power Trends 2023" notes that reliability margins are shrinking as electrification programs drive demand for electricity higher. This troubles Dewey.
“Right now we're looking at maintaining that careful balance between generation, supply and demand. As we look to the future, we know a lot of that new supply is going to be intermittent generation," said Dewey. "So wind and solar, that's very dependent on the weather. So when we start thinking about what it takes to manage an electric system, we got to be careful not to retire too many of the fossil fuel based generators until we're certain we've got enough of that renewable supply. A lot of the natural gas facilities, and the generators, emit a lot of pollutants, and there's a lot of pressure to retire those. Many of them are located in communities that are very close to dense populations. Some of these communities are distressed communities, and there's a lot of pressure and drive to retire those facilities for the good of the people that live near them. We're very careful as we manage the electric grid and the reliability of the grid, to make sure that we don't retire these plants prematurely and create a power system disturbance.”
Dewey says the potential for delays in construction of new emission-free supplies and transmission, higher than forecast demand, and extreme weather could threaten reliability and resilience to the grid.
"That's our biggest challenge in operating the power grid, you know, the natural gas facilities are very reliable, they're very flexible," said Dewey. "So when the wind goes up, we can reduce the power output of the gas plants. When the wind dies down and we need to increase the power consumption of the gas plants, it's a very flexible resource. But we recognize the pollutants that get created when that happens. So we need to make sure that we've got adequate supply of new generation before we retire the assets that we depend on today, to keep the lights on and keep the grid reliable. Battery storage is another new technology that we don't have a lot of today, but we're building a lot of it pretty quickly. That's a good resource right there. So when the when the sun goes down, and the wind dies off, if you've got battery storage, you can utilize that power to meet the demand and avoid using the high emitting polluting fossil fuel plants."
The report discusses the key clean energy policies impacting how electricity is produced, transmitted, and used in New York, including the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, which requires an economy-wide approach to addressing climate change and decarbonization, and the state’s so-called “Peaker Rule,” – emissions regulations that impact approximately 3,300 megawatts of fossil fuel generation downstate.
"One of the other things, which I think is really important is the transmission infrastructure," said Dewey. "And the one of the things that we might not really understand is a lot of these new resources that are bringing the new renewable supply are located in parts of the state where we don't have adequate infrastructure to move that power around. So one of the things that we've made a lot of progress on, we need to continue to work on, is to build out that transmission infrastructure so that we can move the power from where it's going to be generated, meaning like offshore wind, and a lot of the more rural areas within New York State, to be able to move that power to the load centers in the cities where it's going to be most needed. Right now, the infrastructure is not adequate to move that power around, but we've made some tremendous strides with some of the construction to upgrade the power system. And some people see that when they're driving along the Thruway or some of the older transmission corridors, getting replaced with newer towers that are capable of moving more power."
Dewey says despite the challenges, New York state remains committed to its renewable energy goals.
To learn more, read the complete Power Trends 2023 report.
