I mentioned last week the surprise events of the previous weekend when the US and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days to 30% for the Chinese and 10% for Americans. This development raises a whole host of questions. First, Mr. Trump promised revenue in the $60 billion range per month from tariffs, clearly the math does not work. A 30% rate on a trillion dollars in Chinese imports is $300 billion. With the rest of the world exporting to the United States $2.3 billion at 10%, that is $230 billion. The math tells you that the maximum amount that could be collected is $530 billion, which is well short of $720 billion, and again, that assumes the maximum is collected. The second question is, will a 10% or 30% tariff cause businesses to re-shore or return to the United States? The millions of new jobs predicted by Mr. Trump in the US are likely an illusion. This mathematical analysis does not take into account China’s currency manipulation, financial support to their businesses, and passing along the cost of the tariffs to US consumers. It is already happening, a nasty surprise for many. Ultimately, those Chinese companies and others will have to make a decision as to what the economic cost is to build a plant in the United States, versus what other steps they can take to mitigate the impact of the tariffs. If tariffs are passed onto the US consumer, it means we are paying the tax and little re-shoring will occur. Bottom line is his supporters got taken. Mr. Zhi, on the other hand, called Mr. Trump’s bluff and Mr. Trump blinked. Zhi gave away nothing for a reduction of 115% in tariffs.
The Trump administration gave “refuge” to white South Africans on the basis of discrimination that they have experienced after the fall of Apartheid. I would hope that black Americans would recognize this for what it is, a pathetically racist act when, in fact, the administration is taking down the stories of many Americans from the Department of Defense and other agencies, gutting DEI programs and essentially trying to bury American history as it relates to slavery and racism. Democrats may not have done as good a job as they should in addressing the concerns of Black Americans, but they have never taken the kinds of actions that the Trump administration is taking. It is also ironic to note that Afrikaners are settling in Alabama, a long-time hot bed of racism. I guess they feel more welcome there.
The war in Gaza is between two entities that desire the other’s annihilation, and it has persisted for centuries. Criticism of Israeli tactics is not antisemitism, just a rejection of their tactics.
A little more on tariffs. The average high imposed on China during the last 10 years is approximately 20%, so those numbers are in line with where Mr. Trump appears to be going and they had no impact whatsoever on re-shoring.
Mr. Trump finished his tour of leading Arab nations with little or no mention of Gaza. Immediately after his departure a strong condemnation of the war was issued by the Arab league, and the one-sided war grinds on.
At home Mr. Trump purportedly wages war on antisemitism. What really is Mr. Trump’s position?
US consumer sentiment slumps to a three-year low, lower than when Joe was in office. Consumers are anticipating increased inflation due to the tariffs.
The Medicaid bill being worked on by Republicans is likely to cause significant hospital closures as well as a loss of care for many Americans. In Pennsylvania, the Crozer-Chester Medical Center closed, and that was a blow to the local community and is just a sign of what will happen. This bill is very dangerous to the majority of Americans.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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