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Confounding and confusing events 7/17/23

US-Canada-Mexico trade was up 20% during the first three years of the USMCA, and many trade commentators believe that that can be increased even more. In the AG sector alone, there was an increase from 2020 to 2022 of US exports to Canada of 27%, and Canadian exports to the United States of 47%.

Wall Street continues to rise largely because of the surprising strength of the economy, much greater than experts predicted.

Trump keeps talking about what he was doing with the documents, admitting that he didn’t have the authority after he left office to declassify them, showing them to persons not holding the appropriate security clearances, all of which undermines his defense. His lawyers must be losing their minds.

The recent Supreme Court cases have spurred lots of handwringing, and although I disagree with the outcomes of the cases, particularly as regards affirmative action, Colleges, as David Brooks points out, may have many ways to create a diverse student body. I think most people agree that there is less bias against wealthy people of color, and that one way Colleges could diversify their student body is to select students, at least in part, based upon their income. This should have the effect of helping people of color, and if it doesn’t, it will have to be rethought. It should also be noted this could have a tremendous impact on all who come from lower rungs on the economic ladder.

China has taken steps to restrict metal exports of gallium and germanium asserting national security is the reason. The US believes this is in response to its curbs on access to advanced processor chips and other technology also on national security grounds. It looks like we are batting the ball back and forth on some fairly serious manufacturing and technology issues.

Astronomists hear a celestial choir of gravitational waves for the first time. This cosmic background noise comes from collisions between black holes echoing across the universe for the first time. They occur in different frequencies and oscillate for decades which should help scientists understand supermassive black holes, the merger of galaxies and other cosmic phenomena. These types of discoveries demonstrate the power of science, our need to pay attention to it, and fund it.

Recent flooding in the Northeast, sweltering heat in the South and Southwest, and the ocean around Florida is at unprecedent levels of heat. The latter could lead to more mega hurricanes this season. Each area is facing historic impacts. Note to Constitutionalists, there is no climate change occurring, this is all a hoax. I forgot to note the forest fires in Canada having a dramatic impact on us as well.

CNBC reported that JD Power ranked States with the best and the worst tap water based upon quality, reliability, conservation, cost and other factors. New York ranked 3rd. Not a bad designation. Conversely, Alabama was ranked worst in the country (50th), followed by Maryland and Oklahoma. This is interesting and positive news for us New Yorkers.

Farmers Insurance announced that they were leaving Florida as they had previously left the State of California. Farmers, like many other insurance carriers, have suffered tremendous losses due to hurricanes in Florida and rising waters amongst other causes, while California has seen issues related to fires and, most recently, flooding from the large snow pack from the 2022-2023 winter. It all seems to be, in both instances, that the natural disasters are clearly climate change driven, although Farmers does not make that statement, the causes are clear. A friend of mine who is in the insurance business told me that after purchasing a condo in Florida he was told by the local insurance broker that it is virtually impossible to secure property insurance on his new property, although he could obtain liability insurance and property coverage for his vehicle. I wonder if this will spur any action by Republicans on the issue of climate change.

Inflation is cooling, dropping to 4% although not at the Fed’s desired 2% target. Prices did rise .02% last month, pretty tame by comparison.

A record number of Americans are living alone. Nearly 30%, up from 8% in 1940 and 17% in 1970 according to census records. A curious trend caused by… I’ll let you speculate.

Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.

The views expressed by commentators are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of this station or its management.

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