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Confounding and confusing events 6/19/23

We recently had visitors from Canada who are less than welcome. The smoke filling the northern part of the United States is having dramatic impacts on air quality with numbers that are in the extreme range at approximately 152 to 50pms in Plattsburgh recently.

Arrests along the southern border have dropped by 70% after the expiration of Title 42, and the implementation of a new set of rules for asylum seekers. Republican hysteria about the end of Title 42 seems to be misplaced. I would also note no Republicans are commenting on this, just a bit disingenuous.

Mr. McCarthy is now under pressure from his right flank which is certainly no surprise after the debt ceiling vote. The Republican majority continues to tighten, and I suspect in short order new bills that Mr. McCarthy cannot get signed into law without compromise will be his ultimate downfall, even if Republicans have no other individual who is electable.

The US/Canada border is experiencing some thickening even in light of the USMCA, as states are imposing regulations such as California’s Prop 12, which impedes Canadian hog farmers and beef producers in terms of entering that market. This is done under the guise of protecting animals or humans, and if it becomes a trend, it could be problematic with regard to trade and likely lead to challenges under the USMCA.

It will come as no surprise to most that China remains are largest trading partner, and state by state analysis demonstrates just how much bilateral trade goes on, and how it impacts the economies of those states. Much of the anti-China rhetoric is nothing more than that because the practical implications would be material to many, if not most states’ economies.

The New York Times, Wall Street Journal and many other outlets have been reporting on an archeological find of a branch of Homo sapiens known as Homo naledi, which is an ape sized human ancestor with a relatively small brain, but who appears to have been burying their dead 100,000 years ago, before what was believed to be the earliest timeframe for this behavior. This branch of humanity is extinct and scientists initially believed that because of the small brain size they would not be able to demonstrate the kind of behavior that they have. The research is complex because of its age and location which is deep in a cave system near modern day Johannesburg. The evolutionary process never ceases to amaze.

There is a growing call for increased reserves for those banks with $100 billion in assets or greater by the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The banking industry is, of course, objecting and claiming that it will restrict available capital, thus, injuring businesses seeking loans, all of which may be true. The question is how do you weigh the conflict between banks that are systemic risks against issues raised by the banking regulators.

Republicans are standing with Trump and against the Department of Justice including the FBI. I remember when they “stood with the Blue” and were the self-proclaimed law and order Party.

Confidence in the scientific community fell from 2018-2022. The most dramatic drop is among Republicans which should be no surprise.

Retail sales rose 0.3% in May despite the impact of higher inflation and interest rates. Consumers continue to drive the economy.

Does remote work foretell a major adjustment in the commercial real estate market, particularly in larger cities? What will the ripple effects of this be on the economy?

Scientists have recently said one of Saturn’s moons can definitely sustain life. So maybe there is life out there.

China appears to be struggling economically which has broad implications for the world economy as well as the decline in orders to manufacturers in Germany. Both have broad implications for the World economy says the Economic Times. Economic Data shows China is slipping as an exporter to the US.

Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.

The views expressed by commentators are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of this station or its management.

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