It appears that there is good news on the horizon, at least for mice, and maybe for humans as scientists believe they have had a major breakthrough in understanding what causes cells to age. A scientist at the Paul F. Glenn Center for Biology of Aging Research at Harvard indicates that he has broken through a barrier that may impact the aging clock, and potentially reverse the aging of cells. This, obviously, is good news for many of us, maybe for all of us. My question is, will it regrow the cartilage in my knees?
China has reported that it had its first population decline in 60 years, which they measure by the difference between births and deaths. Obviously, they are in a deepening demographic crisis, much like Japan, which will have significant impact on China’s economy, and likely on the world economy. Although with several billion people, they still have a fairly deep bench, and I suspect this will not have much impact for at least a generation.
The Three Amigos apparently were talking microchips at the end of their recent meeting. This is potentially good news for Mexico, as the US apparently believes that there are US companies that are interested in doing some manufacturing in Mexico. The overall goal is to make north America a semi-conductor hub, all of which makes great sense, not only for semi-conductors, but for other manufacturing, as well. We have a large enough potential market in north, central and south America to more than sustain an intra-country economy, which is what we have been trying to develop through NAFTA and now the USMCA.
Recently, Bloomberg news commented on “dollar shorts” becoming a favorite trade bet, as the fed seems to be leaning towards slowing hikes in the US interest rate. The idea of shorting the dollar, which means short sellers believe that the dollar will fall, and it will be less expensive to fulfill those contracts raises any number of interesting questions. Does this mean the US economy is weakening, or rather does it mean that we will have an easier time in exporting goods because they will be cheaper. Time will tell what the result is. It could always be just a Wall Street money making scheme, not to say that it is illegal, but just another vehicle for securing profit for big Wall Street Banks.
Retail sales were down by 1.1% in December and inflation fell to 6.5% year over year. One trend is good for the economy and the other not so much.
We have hit the debt limit and the games started down in DC as everyone is angling for an advantage. The President says he would not negotiate, speaker McCarthy is saying that we need to get to it, and Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer don’t seem to be saying anything other than there will not be a default. The latter two may be in the best position. No matter what happens, the debt limit will have to be increased, and likely some form of a compromise will have to be made because the Republicans have the majority in the House, although it is quite likely that many of the far-right Republicans will not vote to increase the debt limit which will shift the burden to the Democrats to support the legislation, and that, in effect, means that Mr. McCarthy has lost some of his negotiating power in that process. Conversely, Mr. Schumer needs Mr. McConnell in the Senate to bring along at least nine or ten Republicans assuming no Democrats oppose the legislation. Thus, one can see a complex convoluted negotiation. Let’s hope it doesn’t go 15 rounds.
Continuing with the debt limit games, there has been much written and talked about in terms of what exactly extraordinary measures means. In basic terms, it is a series of accounting maneuvers that allows the government to pay down/reduce the debt through accounting mechanisms, and thus, not exceed the debt limit. Apparently, the Treasury believes it can perform this juggling act until at least June. Of course, it is beneficial that we are in the time of the year when most of the tax revenue flows in, which is from now until April 15th, so that this should create some additional room in the system.
Our Representative is being called upon by members of her party to cooperate with the Ethics Committee investigation of Mr. Santos. There are significant questions now being raised about what leaders of the Republican Party knew about Mr. Santos during the course of his elections, and just how much of his resume was fraudulent and was known to them. Some Republican members of Congress are saying simply that if, in fact, it can be established that he lied which he has already admitted, then they believe that is enough to expel him from the House. We will see, because that is going to depend upon how many votes Mr. McCarthy needs and as long as Mr. Santos stays in Mr. McCarthy’s corner, and can be counted on to vote with him, the less likely Mr. McCarthy is to seek his ouster.
Job claims fell by 15,000 last week, which is the lowest since September 2022 and continue to hover around pre-pandemic levels.
Representative Stefanick seems to be losing ground in her caucus to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. It appears Ms. Greene is usurping power as she plays McCarthy and Trump with great skill. It appears our Congresswoman is unsure how to proceed with regard to her support of Trump. Will she again successfully read the tea leaves.
China is having major issues with it’s 1 trillion-dollar investment around the world as it try’s to buy influence. The Wall Street Journal reports poor construction done primarily by Chinese firms as well as poor materials which are equally inferior. Many of these projects pose a danger of collapse. Chinese construction appears to mirror the Russian military, looks good on paper, but not so much in real time.
As we noted previously, unemployment claims declined in December and there remains 10million unfilled jobs.
The US Trade Rep. Katherine Tai recently said that as income in equality grows world trade is likely to slow. A simple answer appears, as people have less disposable income, they purchase less. Not a very complex bit of logic.
The Ukraine appears to have had another break point. Will it be able to maintain this valiant fight or will Republicans refuse to support it. It looks more and more like the right-wing Republicans stand with Putin as their leader did- Mr. Trump.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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