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Confounding and confusing events 1/2/23

The chip industry has taken a major reversal going from short supply to excess supply in a short period which has been largely caused by the substantial decrease in the number of gadgets needing chips being sold. We may be seeing part of the effect locally with the layoffs at Global Foundries.

The chaos that Southwest experienced in the last several weeks is truly frightening. It appears that it is the result of having failed to update technology, or, in other words, they failed to make investments in order to maintain short term profits and have now placed themselves in a position where they could face serious economic consequences. It wouldn’t particularly surprise me if this caused Southwest to have to file for bankruptcy at some point in order to reorganize because of the swell of litigation this is likely to engender. In addition, Southwest could very well lose a substantial amount of going forward revenue because of this performance, and the fear that it could be repeated again.

It is being reported that the cash holdings of US government pension funds and US corporate pension funds are at extraordinarily low levels. This could create issues for retirees, as even though the assets are there to pay benefits, converting them to cash may create a number of short-term logistical and financial issues that the funds would have to manage their way through. The effect on the overall market is unknown.

I think it is fair to say what is going on with Tesla is this the result of Mr. Musk’s ill-advised purchase of Twitter for an enormous sum that he leveraged with his shares in Tesla? The ramifications of this are substantial and then you add to that the fact that demand is falling for Tesla vehicles also creates, at best, a difficult situation for Musk, Tesla and potentially Twitter.

As 2022 has come to an end, one can only continue to be impressed with the resolve of the Ukrainians, their bravery, and their brashness. Standing up to Mr. Putin, his now largely disgraced army has been something of a shining light for the rest of the world to admire.

The FTX debacle raises any number of questions, but clearly calls for stricter regulation in this largely misunderstood area of finance. Whether or not regulators can get their arms wrapped around this, or not, is also a reasonable question to ask. Nonetheless, given what happened in FTX which may have been not so much the complexity of crypto currency, but rather the simple greed and thievery of those operating FTX needs to be examined so that Congress can make a decision as to what level of regulation is required.

It appears that holiday spending held for this year even in light of inflation and the fears of recession. The Chinese economy continues to falter due to the Governments handling of COVID.

Kevin McCarthy flounders with the strongest evidence being the fact that the Senate Republicans allowed the Omnibus Bill to go forward essentially cutting McCarthy and the Republican House out of that conversation until at least the end of September of 2023. Is this because Mr. McConnell and the Senate Republicans feel that Mr. McCarthy won’t be elected, or if elected will have little control of his caucus, one can only conclude that they have deep fears about his ability to govern. I share those fears.

In the continuing saga of Congresswoman Stefanik, her surrogates continue to allow her to lay claim to the benefits which our community derives from various Congressional actions. The latest is the Omnibus funding bill which found leaders in our community praising her for her work on the bill. Unfortunately, she voted NO.

Ms. Stefanik, of course, did not correct the record relative to the Omnibus bill, and has been incredibly silent both about Mr. McCarthy’s troubled run, Mr. Trump’s falling popularity and poor results in the polls, as well as his selling what amounts to baseball cards in order to raise revenue for his clearly faltering campaign. It seems like our shapeshifter may be shifting again.

Congressmen elect Santo’s, who Ms. Stefanick endorsed, has promised to vote for Mr. McCarthy. So, no negative comments about his actions are offered by any in Republican leadership including Ms. Stefanick. Santo’s will be gone by June likely due to investigations by his local Republican DA and the FEC.

Canada is now seeking 500,000 new immigrants per year. The Business community and Government both see the economic need and are responding rationally.

Canada looks to the Indo-Pacific region for new trade deals in 2023. A sensible approach in my view.

Happy New Year to all. Thank you for listening and I hope you share my faith in America to recover from the turmoil we have experienced. A little tolerance would go a long way.

Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.

The views expressed by commentators are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of this station or its management.

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