The law of unintended consequences is both one of my favorite expressions and also probably overused, or at least misused. Because in the end, pretty much everything we do has consequence beyond the intended, assuming there was intention. So it’s more likely you don’t really care much about what else might happen, at least not enough to change course.
That may be the case for the new NCAA settlement that paves the way for universities to directly compensate college athletes to the tune of millions of dollars, beyond the name, image, and likeness money they can already earn. This landmark agreement is changing the entire framework of big time college sports, both making sure that star athletes share in the profits of elite college athletics while also evolving their very nature from amateur to paid professional. And that, it would seem, would be a big win for student athletes, who for decades have argued they’ve been taken advantage of by a system that outgrew its genesis. For some athletes, it will be, with star quarterbacks and point guards earning considerable salaries from places like Georgia and USC, universities funded by media contracts and wealthy donors. But for other athletes, especially those towards the end of the bench in sports that aren’t in the spotlight, it’s likely the end of their athletic career.
That’s because part of this agreement is the creation of roster limits instead of scholarship limits. This would be one means of ensuring universities don’t stockpile talent and perhaps keep the arms race of college sports from hitting Mars. That makes sense if you’re one of the star athletes who will benefit from the new model. But if you’re not, like a mid or back of the pack swimming or cross country running, you’re likely at the end of college sports, and as early as next season. This is what’s happening to Division I athletes across the country, many of whom were already told that they won’t be on the team next year. The same goes for some incoming freshmen who thought they had a roster spot, even if they’re technically what we call walk-ons. This is what happens when the cross country roster limit is 17 and swimming is 30 – although some conferences are going even lower. It means that athletes who are typically out of team scoring and far from the varsity travel roster are out. That can be pretty tough for anyone who’s built their social and support systems on being a part of a team. And mind you, these aren’t athletes who expected to earn money or scholarships for playing college sports. They just wanted to compete. And also, this isn’t for all sports. In fact, football roster sizes are growing, a reflection of a market based sports economy. It’s the other sports, the ones you don’t watch on TV, that are taking the hit.
For the record, the courts have halted the new agreement until this gets worked out, on the premise that a ruling that was meant to help some college athletes is clearly hurting others. But I imagine at best we’ll see current athletes grandfathered in, followed by a strict roster diet moving forward. Which means that fewer runners, swimmers, baseball players, and so on will end up playing DI sports – and those that do will be way more focused than they already are. So if you enjoy high stress recruiting consultants for 8th graders, than this is your time.
The easy mark here is that this feels unfair and kids will suffer and look at what we’re losing from the soul of college sports. I get that, especially as a former Division I college cross country runner. But that’s probably missing the bigger point. The version of college sports that many of us remember or idealize, that’s pretty much gone – and probably has been for a while. It’s professional now, even as some sports are there more for appearances than revenue. And those lower tier Division I schools that may really suffer, well, perhaps it’s time for them to rethink whether that’s still the right place. It used to be that smart university money was to try to get to DI to be in a different neighborhood. Now, for a lot of schools, it might be wise to move back, especially if varsity sports is also something of an enrollment strategy.
It's not something I inherently saw coming as college sports made its inevitable change. Or maybe we didn’t care to think about it. But we all probably should have.
Keith Strudler is the Dean of the School of Communication and Media at Montclair State University. You can follow him at @KeithStrudler.
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