Rising seas are threatening coastal towns and cities all over the world. According to an analysis by researchers at Tulane University, Yale, and other institutions, coastal Louisiana faces sea level rise of 10 to 23 feet as this century moves forward. It is one of the lowest lying regions in the world, and New Orleans is particularly exposed. It sits in a bowl-shaped basin, mostly below sea level, in the middle of a rapidly shrinking delta.
New Orleans is almost entirely surrounded by wetlands, which buffer it against hurricanes and storm surges. But these are disappearing because they are drained for development and canals are dredged in them for the oil and gas industry. Over the past century, Louisiana has lost 2,000 square miles of wetlands.
According to the analysis published in the journal Nature Sustainability, the region has crossed the point of no return and New Orleans may be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century. The paper argues that the city needs to start developing strategies for relocation.
Failing to implement a carefully managed relocation process risks a chaotic future that would be especially damaging to the city’s poorest people. People who decide to stay and adapt will end up spending more and more money and effort trying to flood-proof their lives.
There is precedent for relocating a city. The city of Kiruna in Sweden is slowly being swallowed by an iron ore mine upon which it was built. The city is now in the midst of a decades-long relocation process that was voted for in 2004 and will be finished in 2035.
