The geographic range of a plant species is the area where it can survive and grow. That range is shaped by climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, humidity, and wind. When those conditions change, plants must either adapt, shift their range, or risk decline.
For temperature-sensitive species, warming climates may push them toward cooler areas at higher latitudes or elevations. But a new study suggests that movement alone may not be enough to save them.
Researchers from the University of California Davis modeled how nearly 68,000 plant species could respond to warming temperatures through the end of the century. They found that 7% to 16% of the plant species studied are expected to lose more than 90% of their range, placing them at a high risk of extinction by the end of the century.
According to the researchers, the problem is not that plants can’t move fast enough. The problem is that suitable habitat is disappearing.
The research team found that even when plants are able to shift their ranges, many simply will not have enough livable territory left as the climate changes. That means strategies like assisted migration - where humans help species relocate - may only have limited success unless combined with habitat restoration and protection of climate-stable lands.
The study, which was recently published in the journal Science, projects especially high losses in southern Europe, southern Australia, and the western United States.
According to the researchers, aggressively reducing emissions remains the most effective way to slow plant extinctions.
