Republican Charlie Baker has momentum as the race for governor in Massachusetts enters the final month. It raises the question: Could Martha Coakley lose another big election?
Several recent polls have found the race for governor in Massachusetts is a dead heat between the major party candidates with three independents registering in the low single digits. A double-digit lead Coakley once had over Baker has now evaporated.
Tim Vercellotti is the director of the Polling Institute at Western New England University, which reported its most recent survey earlier this week that had Baker pulling support from 44 percent of likely voters and Coakley with 43 percent.
But the survey of 416 likely voters conducted from September 22-28 found 41 percent said they could change their mind before Election Day.
" It is anybody's race among the two front runners," said Vercellotti.
Vercellotti said Baker enjoys a healthy lead among independents.
"Republican voters only make up 11-12 percent of the electorate. Independent, or un-enrolled, voters make up 53 percent and they'll decide this race. (Baker) is strong among those voters now. He has to hold on to them to put together a winning coalition."
Baker trails Coakley by just 11 percent among likely women voters, according to the latest WNEU poll. When Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick won reelection in 2010 and when Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren was elected in 2012 their edge among women was closer to 15 percent, according to Vercellotti.
Coakley’s fall from clear frontrunner status just a few a months ago brings up the specter of 2010 when she lost a large lead and was defeated by Republican Scott Brown in the special election for U.S. Senate. Vercellotti said the latest poll data should cause concern for Democrats that history might repeat.
" The Coakley campaign has to take a look at their message, at their ad buys, at every element of the campaign in order to regain the momentum that has clearly shifted to Charlie Baker at this point," said Vercellotti.
Coakley, addressing reporters after the first broadcast debate of the general election campaign in Springfield Monday night, said she remains confident.
" I think as we focus on our ground game we will get our vote out. This race has really just started."
Coakley has tried to project more empathy than she did in her 2010 race against Brown. During Monday’s debate she spoke about conversations she’d had with teachers to underscore her support for funding early childhood education.
Baker has also tried to change from 2010 when he lost to Gov. Patrick. Baker came across as angry during that earlier campaign. He’s also stressing more liberal views on social issues. Baker went out of his way during Monday’s debate to upbraid independent Scott Lively for a perceived anti-gay remark.
Baker said he took personal offense because he has a gay brother.
" I brought it up because it was pretty clear he was talking about my family. If you want to talk about my family, you are going to hear from me. That's the way I'm built. That's the way I work," said Baker.
Lively and the other independent candidates Evan Falchuk and Jeff McCormick continue to have very low name recognition among likely voters in the WNEU poll, according to Vercellotti.
" Among the three they are accounting for about 5 percent of the vote. There is only 1 percent separating Baker and Coakley, so the three independents could shift the outcome of the race."
Falchuk said he believes upcoming broadcast debates in eastern Massachusetts that again will include all five candidates will help boost his standing in the polls.
" It is still early.There is lot that is going to happen. There are still a lot of voters who are not sure even when the election is," said Falchuk in Springfield Monday night.
Falchuck, who has campaigned against what he calls the political establishment, is trying to build a third party. If he gets three percent of the vote in the election for governor, Falchuck’s United Independent Party would qualify for public campaign financing in future elections.
