New Yorkers appear to be more confident about the economy following November’s election.
The latest New York State Index of Consumer Sentiment poll by the Siena College Research Institute shows increased economic optimism among New Yorkers, particularly Republicans, likely influenced by the November election.
Poll Director Don Levy says the survey released Wednesday finds the index is up 2.2 points from the third quarter of 2024 to 78.1, 4.1 points above the national index — and that’s despite a 3.9-point national increase. The overall index is above the breakeven point of balanced optimism and pessimism for the first time since June 2021.
"Clearly, the election had an enormous amount to do with it," Levy said. "We've seen this before, that as soon as the party in power in DC changes, we see a flip flop in sentiment, a bi-party here in New York. So right now, Republicans are dramatically more confident about the future. In fact, when we just asked them about future conditions, both their personal ones and the overall economy, they have a skyrocketing amount of optimism. Democrats are moving in the opposite direction. They feel better about exactly how they are right now, what they can afford today versus what they can afford a year ago. But when you ask Democrats about a year from now, five years from now, they are decidedly more negative. So you throw all that together, and the conclusion is that New Yorkers as a whole are slightly more optimistic than they were last quarter."
Levy says consumer optimism has pushed buying plans up sharply across the board.
“Each of the five major goods that we track, cars, electronics, furniture, homes and home improvements, are up, and up strongly in the neighborhood of four to seven points. What really was interesting is that furniture right now, 34% of us say that we're going to purchase furniture valued at $500 or more over the next six months. That is the highest number we have ever seen in our tracking survey. That goes back now over 20 years,” said Levy.
Despite the interest in furnishings, Levy says housing remains a major issue.
"It is a crippling cost. Statewide, 72% of us say that it's causing us a concern. Many New Yorkers at this point, most especially some of our friends in Long Island, for example, are saying, right now that housing costs are so high that they see themselves as renting forever, that the idea of purchasing a home starting to get out of reach for many middle class New Yorkers. Those with a lower income, under $50,000 a year, 78% say the housing costs are causing a pinch. But even New Yorkers earning over $100,000 a year. Seven out of 10 say that it just costs too much,” Levy said.
Although residents’ worries over gas prices as tracked by the survey are at their lowest level since early 2021, Levy says concerns about food prices are tied for their highest mark ever, with 81% of New Yorkers saying the cost of groceries is having a serious impact on their monthly budgets.
Denise Lee from Long Island, who is wintering in Albany, left the supermarket with a small basket of groceries. She says the prices still sting. “A little bit too high. Like this morning I feel about the eggs, because of the bird flu. That's something. You know. But you got to live,” said Lee.
According an area grocery chain's website a dozen eggs cost around $5.
Gas prices in the Albany continue hovering around the $3 a gallon mark.
Albany resident Douglas Gillian believes grocery and gasoline prices could be stabilized if nations would collaborate to hold production and distribution costs down.
“Well, when it comes to prices, that's one thing. As long as countries can't work together, learn how to hash things out in the right normal, neighborly way, without trying to control each other's economy. The economy, I believe, is based on a lot of things that are upcoming in the future. Some people call it prophecy. Some people may call it a change in the dynamics of government,” Gillian said.
Levy is keeping a keen eye on that.
“So right now, with Republicans, most especially all New Yorkers, feeling a bit of optimism, that's going to be the test," said Levy. "If three months from now, six months from now, New Yorkers feel as though their dollar is going further at the grocery store. That's really going to hold this uptick in consumer sentiment. In fact, perhaps it may go up even more.”
Levy says with incoming President Trump promising tariffs as well as other changes that will affect the economy, "we’ll see" how consumer sentiment moves early in 2025. Siena's next consumer sentiment survey is due in the spring.
This Siena College Poll was conducted November 11 – 18, 2024, among 803 New York State Residents. Of the 803 respondents, 453 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (109 completed via text to web) and 350 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Lucid). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from Marketing Systems Group (MSG). Data from collection modes was statistically adjusted by age, party registration, region, race/ethnicity, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting.The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information or comments, please call Dr. Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and buying plans can be found at www.siena.edu/scri/cci.
