Mr. Trump has successfully secured a deal with the EU and assuming it holds as they work out the details, it is, in fact, significant. How will this deal impact foreign policy? Will we see these countries refusing to cooperate with us on other areas that are vital to our national as they determine what the actual cost to them has been when they made these agreements? It could also be that the tariffs which have been imposed will also take a toll on the US economy and will result in a changing US policy, as the public gets hammered by inflation and potentially shortages.
Mr. Trump’s recent commentaries about Epstein’s island have stoked yet another furor as he indicated that it would have been a “privilege” to go to the island. It does not appear that he, nor his base understands what was going on on the island or refuses to recognize it and somehow believe that he is acting in good faith. The only conclusion one can really draw is that he would have liked to have been to the island to engage in the illicit activities that it offered.
Economic reports this week show a slowing of the economy year after year, a decline in unfilled jobs, and an increase in core inflation from 2.4% to 2.7%, and lower levels of job creation. There is also a decline in orders for big equipment. So where is the economy headed? September and October will likely provide the answer.
Mr. Trump threatened India with large tariffs and then imposed them with an “extra” for buying Russian oil. This has some interesting ramifications because of India’s large economy and its impact on the rest of the world. Our imports from India were $91 billion in 2024.
The demands being made by Ms. Maxwell in the Epstein saga for her testimony are very telling, as she clearly does not trust DOJ, nor Mr. Trump so she wants her clemency up front. Will DOJ grant her request, and will the MAGA community continue to put pressure on Mr. Trump for full disclosure?
The Trump administration did away with tariff-free small package imports below $800 which will result in minimal collection of revenue and increase expense for customers and Border Patrol as they will now need to process these items. Obviously, it will also increase the cost to importers into the United States and consumers who are making purchases. Another great move for Americans by Mr. Trump, and they do not even understand what is happening.
China appears to have extended its agreement with Mr. Trump but has not reached an actual tariff deal. It is unclear from the reports whether or not China is processing sales of rare earth minerals in a reasonable period of time, or is using that as a tactic to balance, what I am sure they think is an unfair tariff rate. We also should note that China, after Mr. Trump’s last round of tariffs in his first administration has ceased purchasing large quantities of soybeans from the United States and have now substituted Brazilian soybeans. One of my friends suggested that the rallying club cry for American consumers should be “it is the soybeans, stupid.” Obviously, parroting the old phase, “it is the economy stupid.”
Democrats need to be prepared when we start to see increased prices and shortages of goods which are predicted by economists to occur sometime in the fall from tariffs and deportations. This creates the opportunity to point squarely at the deportation process and tariffs as the cause, which might help to wake up some Americans, but it must actually have to hit home, it cannot be the Democrats crying in the desert about something that might happen. That won’t fly.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady, and predicted inflation increases as a result of the tariffs in September and October, so, the likelihood of the Fed of lowering rates is very small. It is also important to note that historically rates have been above this 2% threshold, and the economy has boomed even in light of those rates. The lessons of history and the facts are often obscured by Mr. Trump’s tweets.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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