The questions that all Americans will have to answer is has Mr. Trump kept his promises, and secondarily, is my life better as the result of kept promises, or, if the promises have not been kept, is my life better?
We are keeping track of promises made and promises kept.
Last week we noted that deportations were below the Biden administration’s numbers, and Obama’s numbers at the same point in their administrations. It hasn’t improved.
No steps have been taken to reduce inflation or lower prices, and in fact, prices are rising. In particular, food generally, eggs and gas. Tariffs will make it worse.
The Ukraine war is still going and there is no end in sight, and the Gaza cease fire is teetering.
All Federal Aid frozen, then rescinded. He sews confusion and nothing more. I assume this is about spending reductions on woke items.
As a member of the Canadian American Business Counsel, I had the opportunity to attend a conference call with the NDP leader of Canada, Mr. Singh, who discussed the relationship with the United States, and clearly indicated that Canada had no interest in becoming a state and expressed a hope that a negotiation could be had to avoid tariffs, and therefore, a trade war. He did indicate that some of the tools in their arsenal, if you will, would be exports of oil which make up a substantial portion of the oil for refining that is done in the United States, and essentially makes us energy independent, as well as minerals and electricity. A number of other members of the CABC, before Mr. Singh came on the line, indicated that they were hearing that the new leader of the Labor Party would be Mark Kearney rather than Christina Freeland. Over the weekend a retired PM from PEI expressed support for Ms. Freeland, so, we are not sure what direction this is going.
Mr. Trump’s desire to increase oil production seems to be a bit of a canard when as the Energy Information Administration advised, production has grown at the annual rate of 8.4% over the past two years to an average of nearly 13.5 million barrels a day in the month of October, while Trump aids suggest that that could increase by an additional 3 million barrels a day, however, that would be difficult to achieve without substantial changes in the global market that we do not unilaterally control in the building of more refining capacity, years at best. Even Fox News thinks there is no crisis here, but that there is in the electrical grid (see Mr. Joseph Brettell’s recent article on Fox News).
Mr. Trump claimed victory in the recent deportation dispute with Columbia. I think it is fair to acknowledge that this tactic worked. The question that nonetheless remains is what is he looking for from Canada other than some strengthening of the border, while his recent remarks indicate that he believes that Canada was “ripping us off” for many years, but without specificity as to the acts that the Canadians have committed, other than a miniscule trade deficit (60B out of 900B in trade). So, in reality it’s not the border, but trade. I understand the tariff issue relative to Mexico and the southern border, and although I think it will impose as much hardship on the United States as it will on Mexico, I understand the desire to bludgeon Mexico.
Although Mr. Trump has taken steps to negatively impact many renewable sources of energy like wind, solar, etc., he seems to have latched on to a favorite renewable energy source, geothermal. No analysis of geothermal appears with his comments, thus, who knows what he thinks.
US consumer confidence drops again, moving to 104.1 from 109.5 which is the assessment Americans have of the current economic conditions and their outlook for the next 6 months. The hard evidence is that there is an increase in minimum credit card payments and growing car repossessions, both of which are substantial signals about consumer confidence and their ability to pay.
Donald Trump promised, if you will, the moon during the campaign, and then again on Election Day, followed by a series of Executive Orders that were mostly pomp and circumstance, and not much in the way of real policy statements with notable exception of deportations and now tariffs. One of the areas that I find most amusing is that he is leaving the interpretation of these Executive Orders to the various government departments and agencies, the exact thing that he and his supporters have been angry about in terms of the deep state. The failure to see the irony and inconsistency truly befuddles me.
Three quick notes – the tragedy at Reagan Airport was caused by DEI and President Biden, according to Mr. Trump. What he didn’t want to say was that the pilot was a 500-hour experienced woman. Disguised misogyny.
The Wall Street Journal recently opined in an editorial that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico constituted the dumbest trade war in history and they referred to a quote that I find applicable, that “it’s risky to be America’s enemy, but it can be fatal to be it’s friend”.
Selective tariffs reminds me of the Republican argument that the government shouldn’t choose industry winners and losers. Mr. Trump has done that big time. Just ask the auto industry.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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