Mr. Trump continues to tout his massive deportation program but for those of us in Northern New York who are surrounded by dairy farmers, most of whom have illegal immigrants working on their farms, this could be an economic disaster. It is interesting that you hear very little out of the dairy industry complaining about Mr. Trump’s proposal. I suspect they are like many Trump supporters who have been interviewed recently who do not believe that Mr. Trump will actually do this or any of his other threats, and there may be some truth to that view and it also may be that it will be very difficult to do. Nonetheless, it is a threat and you can imagine that some of those workers may very well decide that they are not going to take the risk of deportation and return to their home countries, so as not to be excluded from the United States in the future.
Recent articles have indicated that we do not understand that scale of Chinese spying and the fact that it is overwhelming western governments. The resources developed and deployed by China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, as well as others, is enormous and would overwhelm any system, particularly one like ours which has a vast majority of technology in the hands of individuals and businesses. The lack of coordination is astounding, but understandable because those who have control of the technology do not want the government interfering with it. Unfortunately, there is substantial risk to that thought process as they could more easily be overwhelmed than a unified wall of opposition led by the US government.
An article in Life Sciences presents a story which demonstrates how Democrats have lost the immigrant community, particularly as those immigrants age in place, if you will. In other words, multiple generations living in the US, and they feel that the Democratic party has taken them for granted. Interestingly, they are concerned about inflation, lawlessness, and the open border as well as the high unemployment rate in California. When you combine that with the price of groceries, gas, etc., it becomes a compelling argument to move to Republicans and to see if they can do better. Of course, maybe the solution is that Mr. Trump will deport them all.
I have written a number of times about the declining birth rate in China and Japan in particular; this decline is being faced worldwide, including in the United States. This will have dramatic impacts on the economy in 20 or 30 years as the boomers age out and there become fewer and fewer workers versus the retired population. This is going to take some creative government policies to deal with in a pragmatic and rational fashion. I guess I am expressing some pessimism simply by using that language relative to government policies.
The economic news this past week indicates that unemployment ticked down, consumer spending ticked up, all of which indicate a strong economy. Bizarrely, the reports continue that Americans are unhappy with the economy. Reporters never ask, if that’s how you feel, why do you continue spending?
It is being reported that the Chinese economy is still frozen in spite of the stimuluses that have been enacted and do not appear to be helping. This comes after a long period of successful growth in China and it looks like it is going to take a substantial amount of time to get back to that level. What is perplexing about this is that in a controlled economy even the stimuluses that the government has enacted have not worked.
TSMC, one of the world’s largest chip makers, is reporting that its chip production has held up which is evidence that AI remains a significant factor in the world economy.
The Israeli forces killing of Hamas leader Sinwar raises interesting questions as to where Mr. Netanyahu will go from here. This was one of his chief objectives, and now that that has been achieved, will we see a turn to a two-state solution in Gaza? It appears not. He seems to be widening the war, including a possible strike on Iran.
We haven’t heard much about Canada, Mexico or the EU in the last several months as everything has been focused on the Presidential Election. Canada, in fact, is set up for an election next year as it has reached the 5-year mark of its current government. Mexico recently elected a woman president, and the EU seems almost silent except for issues related to the Ukraine.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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