China has cut interest rates yet again, as it attempts to address its declining manufacturing housing crisis and to jump start its exports. The interest rate cuts have been a tool China has used recently with some frequency as they deal with a wide variety of issues, many of which are associated with the decline in population. Last week China’s stock market soared at levels not seen since 2008, largely because of interest rate cuts and other steps the government is taking to turn the economy around.
Israel has greatly expanded the war in the last week against Hezbollah with significant bombing and loss of life in Lebanon. This, again, raises the spectra of indiscriminate killing and whether or not this has any impact whatsoever on eliminating the threat that Hezbollah poses. We can see how successful Israel has been with Hamas. In addition, it calls into question what Iran may do, and if they do anything that is going to be a significant escalation of the war. It is very unclear what the Israeli game plan is irrespective of what Mr. Netanyahu puts out in the media.
The issue of illegal immigrants crossing is a hot topic as we know in this election. I wonder what the reason is that immigrants cross, although we hear on the news that it’s to seek asylum in many cases, which tends to clog the system with thousands of people who are then admitted until they have a hearing on their claim. Mr. Biden recently stopped the admissions process to at least some degree, but clearly you are not going to solve the illegal immigration issue until you fix the asylum process. It may well be that for a period of time we need to eliminate the ability of people to claim asylum. On the face of it, that sounds very harsh, but in order to get control of the border, establish a new system and be able to treat people fair and equitably, that may be the only course of action. What is most interesting to me is that no one talks about asylum claims impact on the overall system, and it is clearly dramatic. Unfortunately, there is no Government statistical database that can provide information about the number of immigrants who cross in total, versus those seeking asylum. It is hard to imagine that we can’t collect that data, but it does not appear readily available. We need to fix this issue, and the legislation Mr. Trump scuttled would have gone a long way to accomplish that.
As the election draws near, there are some fundamental truths which must be observed. The first is that, in fact, Mr. Trump is not a serious person when it comes to issues, but he has created a mythology around himself based upon his business expertise and his TV performances. There is, however, no substance to many of his positions and if his supporters listened with any level of understanding, they would hear meanderings and gibberish, occasionally sprinkled with some thought, racial slur, or simply demeaning language about those who are his opponents. He occasionally sprinkles in some policy idea; like not taxing tips, not taxing Social Security, or imposing tariffs, but few if any of those are explained in a way which would allow anyone to analyze the impact of these proposals. Many of them are appealing to people, and it appears that his general attacks on the status quo, even though he didn’t do much to move the needle in his first term, are at least viscerally appealing to many. There are those also who are self-interested, such as the wealthy in our economy who have benefitted from his 2017 tax cuts, and in some senses, I understand their position better than I do those who have not benefitted.
Mr. Ohtani played a phenomenal baseball game within the last two weeks in which he had six hits, ten RBIs and three homeruns, as well as two stolen bases. There have been individuals in major league baseball history who have accomplished pieces of these achievements, but no one has put it all together in one game before. There is an interesting contrast between Judge and Ohtani, and ultimately it will be determined by how well each of their teams do in the playoffs, as it is highly likely that each of them will be their leagues’ MVP.
In the BBC Science Focus Magazine there was a story about the fact that the Atlantic Ocean’s currents are collapsing, although it is not imminent scientists are predicting that this will happen around 2050 with serious consequences for all of us, including winds howling across a frozen Thames River in England, ice flows blocking shipping in the Mossy docks, and crops failing across the UK, while the US east coast, which has been inundated by rising seas, will be dramatically impacted, with the likely loss of substantial amounts of real estate along the shoreline.
Mr. Trump says violence should be directed towards Democrats. He claims the assassination attempts are caused by Democratic rhetoric. He hasn’t listened to himself, obviously.
Probably the most important economic news of the past week is the threatened Longshoreman strike. If that occurs, it will certainly impact imports and to some extent exports, disrupt the supply chain, likely lead to a dramatic drop in the economy and potentially cause inflation to rise again. These are not good results for any of us, including ultimately Longshoreman.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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