Scientists are warning that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC, the system of ocean currents which acts like a conveyor belt helping to regulate and redistribute heat and cool water is weakening as the climate warms and could potentially suffer a dangerous and abrupt collapse. Obviously, this would have world-wide consequences. This is another piece of troubling information that continues to be ignored by our Republican friends and other climate change deniers. For those of us living on the east coast of the United States abutting the Atlantic Ocean, this may pose more of an issue than we may understand at this juncture.
The Government again tumbles towards a shutdown, with the first stage temporarily averted. This is caused by the intransigents of Speaker Johnson and his right-wing cohorts. Will Johnson have the courage to again rebuff the extremes in his caucus, or will he cave and do what Republican Senators fear. The Senators are of course concerned that Republicans would be blamed for any shutdown that could have significant political consequences next November up and down the ballot. Stepping away from the politics, it is no way to run a government.
As I noted in last week’s commentary, and I have been seeing from other political commentators, the most expressive of whom is Nikki Haley who has hammered the theme that if 40% of Republicans are voting for someone other than Trump, how much will his general election numbers suffer. I do not assume that those people will vote for Biden, but if they stay home or cast a write-in ballot for a third-party, it is just as effective. There is ample polling out there that if Mr. Trump is convicted in any of the upcoming trials, that there will be further deterioration in his voting base, which, again, has down ballet consequences. Mr. Biden’s recent polling is devastating. He needs to withdraw.
Mr. Trump continues to tout his tariff policies which now includes a 10% tariff on all goods coming into the United States. I have not read an economist yet who believes that this will have any positive impact on the US economy. The 10% as well as any other tariffs will be passed on to consumers and not paid by the exporting country or it’s businesses. Unfortunately, Mr. Trump’s supporters do not have that level of understanding of the economy or they don’t care.
Iran announced that it was going to reduce its nuclear capacity in a surprise move, which appears to be an attempt to mollify the United States, and to reduce the tensions that have increased over the last several weeks and months. It is anyone’s guess what the Iranian’s strategy is, but let’s hope that, in fact, some level of nuclear capacity has been reduced in Iran.
Mitch McConnell announced his retirement in November after holding the post of Republican leader for 17 years. He has been praised by many, vilified by an equal number, but most interestingly is the vilification from members of the Republican party in the House. I believe McConnell has done much damage to the country, in particular with the Supreme Court Justices which he pushed through the Senate, and in recent months he has done some good. On balance, he is not a good man to be praised.
The Supreme Court decision to hear the immunity claim by Mr. Trump was, to some degree, not a surprise since it is a significant issue. The timing looks quite suspicious.
Inflation hovers around the same number or has increased in the last month, while the growth in GDP was higher than expected. The continuing mixed signals I think have frozen the Fed, and is having an adverse impact on rates, the stock market, sort of, and the psyche of the American public. This, of course, does not explain why GDP has grown, consumer confidence remains quite high even though it has weakened some.
The New York State budget battles are in full swing with all the interest groups hounding the Governor, the Republicans complaining about too much spending and regulation, the Democrats wanting to spend more, and no one is interested in compromise until the days surrounding the budget due date when somehow, magically, some level of reality sets in.
A bright red fish with legs was discovered at a depth of 5,000 feet off the coast of Chile. Along with the fish was living tumbleweed, crimson crustaceans, and lots of organisms flashing bioluminescently.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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