President Trump’s recent announcement that we should suspend or cancel the constitution or at least some aspects of it was a surprise, I think. I wonder if he understands the Bill of Rights might be gone as well. His base boss won’t like losing the 2nd Amendment.
In the last week, we saw some strong economic data including the service sector’s strong growth in November and the Institute for Supply Management reporting that US factories and orders for durable goods in October rose more than expected. Bond yields rose for 10-year treasuries from 3.49 to 3.59, China’s manufacturing due to its Covid restrictions continues to be disrupted and U.S. labor provided stronger than anticipated results. This, of course, causes the Fed to think more about interest rates and they are now reporting that we could see rates in excess of 5%, which certainly will have an impact on the economy in terms of slowing it down. The cross-over point is almost impossible to define.
It was interesting to note how much stronger the Democratic mechanism was versus the Republicans, particularly in Georgia. Governor Brian Kemp was equally effective in the Gubernatorial race, but not so for Walker. Important to note Republican’s received 54.5 million votes and Democrats received 51.4 million. This is the final event of the mid-terms, and all-in-all Democrats should be very pleased with the outcome.
The Trump conviction in New York City for tax fraud reminds, how many decades ago Al Capone was brought to justice. He, too, was convicted of tax fraud, even though he had committed many, many other crimes and was a well-known mobster. There is some irony to Mr. Trump’s Corporation being convicted of tax fraud and sitting in the similar place in history as Mr. Capone.
It was announced this past week that The German Government had arrested 25 people in a plot to overthrow the German government. It appears that not only is the United States suffering from citizens of this ilk, but obviously, the Germans are as well. I suspect there are many other pockets throughout the world of right-wing violent extremism. The fact that we have conflicting political views they are in large measure, expressed nonviolently, is a testament to democracy.
I was pleased to see that some of the recipients of the medals recently awarded by Congress to the Capital Police refused to shake the hands of Mr. McConnell and Mr. McCarthy. In comments afterwards, these family members said their actions were in response to the positions taken by Mr. McConnell, Mr. McCarthy and many other Republicans that this was not a riot, not an attack on the Capital Police, not an attack on the Capital, and they found it totally repugnant. Those views are shared by our Congresswoman, a deniers.
Canada’s trade surplus grew to $1.2 billion in October. Much of it related to trade with the US. At the same time, while US trade boomed generally, it saw a downturn from Russia, the Ukraine and Hong Kong. Canadians respond to Trudeau’s tilt away from China favorably.
A discovery in Great Britain of a woman’s necklace from the 7th century in North Hampton shire is being hailed by archeologists as a once in a lifetime find. It contains beads, gold and semi-precious stones. It was found in an early Anglo-Saxon burial site and helps to understand the spread of Christianity through medieval Europe. The piece is dated between 630 and 670 AD.
The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by a half a point recently.
Chinese exports fell precipitously in the last month, which is consistent with other reports that we are seeing in terms of the slow-down of the Chinese economy. This is problematic as we noted, because this likely will have an impact on the supply chain which translates to price increases, and therefore, inflation.
Senator Sinema announced that she was leaving the Democratic Party and becoming an Independent. She clearly read the tea leaves seeing that the retention of the Warnock seat giving Democrats 51 votes would lessen she and Mr. Manchon’s impact on the caucus, and thus, has decided to make another move. Does she join Angus King, and still caucus with the Democrats, or does she sit outside of the caucus, and go to the highest bidder. The irony here is the best she can do absent assistance from Mr. Manchon, is create a tie, if the two of them join together, that would create a 51/49 block in favor of the Republicans. She announced over the past weekend she would not caucus with Republicans.
Congresswoman Stefanik votes in favor of the Marriage Act, but then attempts to rationalize it with making some convoluted argument that it supports state’s gun rights and other state rights. If she felt it was the right thing to do, she should have stood up for it. This rationalization makes literally no sense.
A recent commentary by Byron York in the Press Republican of December 8, 2022, in references Mr. Trump’s recent post calling for the termination of the constitution, amongst other things, in order to undo the 2020 election. He points out that Mr. Trump continues to be obsessed with 2020, which is something Americans don’t particularly like. A sore loser he then goes on to say, “The bigger question here is: Is he crazy? Does he really think that somehow, he should just be given the Presidency right here, right now?” Fascinating questions, certainly something of a surprise from someone like Mr. York to be that critical and sarcastic with regard to Mr. Trump.
Senator Warnock won by close to 3%, does that make Georgia purple or was Walker simply that bad a candidate?
Unemployment held steady at 3.7% and 263,000 jobs were added. Where is the Labor market headed in 2023, will it continue to fall as it has this year from 450,000 new hirers to 263, 000.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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