The Inflation Reduction Act, I suspect to the surprise of many, contains $20 billion to help find better ways to deal with the significant amount of habitat conversion to farming and ranching, in an industry that accounts for 11% of US greenhouse gas emissions. No one would argue that we should “defund” agriculture, but it does make sense to give farmers tools to reduce the impact that they are having on climate change. This appears to be a piece of common-sense legislation.
The turmoil in the Chinese economy continues as it stumbled in July even though lock-downs ended, but nonetheless, the economic performance caused its central bank to cut two key interest rates in an effort to shore up faltering growth. The data recently released by the Chinese government demonstrates that economic activity slowed across the board, including factory output, investment, consumer spending, youth hiring and real estate which we reported on earlier. This, again, requires the US to pay attention because of the dramatic impact it has on the supply chain, and what that does to inflation.
It was reported in the Wall Street Journal recently that migrant arrests at the border hit record numbers as the surge continues. There is no doubt that this is a crisis, and is not being managed well by the current administration nor the two previous administrations. I would also note that I think that the management of the border is virtually impossible because no matter what policies are adopted, if people feel they have no alternative in their home country, they will continue to try and come into the United States. A solution will require serious thought and analysis by both political parties to come up with a plan that will at least stem the tide, and hopefully, create something that will allow us to stop the illegal immigration, and yet, at the same time, provide a sufficient number of workers that are needed in many industries, including agriculture and the tourism.
On Sunday, August 14th, the Press Republican reported that Ms. Stefanik was campaigning in Cobleskill, New York, along with a Republican Assemblyman. I didn’t know the district had been expanded to cover the Cobleskill area. If you scour the newspaper over the last several weeks and months, there have been only a few sightings of her attending events in the district. It seems like she is supporting Republicans outside the district, but not spending much time or energy supporting those on the inside of the district.
Wal-Mart and Home Depot reported quarterly sales that were stronger than anticipated. Even though prices are rising, it appears that shoppers are redirecting their spending but still spending equivalent amounts of money. This resulted in a rise in the shares of Wal-Mart and Home Depot by 5.1% and 4.1% respectively. This is good news for retailers, consumers and the economy, in general.
The Washington Post is reporting that Mr. Trump is trying to replace his team of inexperienced lawyers with real lawyers with DOJ criminal experience. He is getting back, across the board, a No. Any attorney watching the circus that Mr. Trump has put on in terms of his dealings with the DOJ, the New York State Attorney General, etc., would loathe to become involved as one always deals heavily on one’s reputation, and having Mr. Trump as a client, in terms of dealing with DOJ lawyers and Federal Judges is not a benefit. The bottom line, very few serious lawyers who want to continue to deal with the DOJ would take him on as a client. They no doubt have heard that Trump is not likely to tell them the truth in any event, making their job all the harder.
Jobless claims held steady which is not consistent with a recession. It seems like we may well avoid a deep recession.
Carl Palladino called for the execution of AG Garland. Republicans including our Congresswoman were silent. Can you imagine if a Democratic candidate had called for AG Barr’s execution? These are not serious leaders, simply anarchists.
China is reporting substantial factory shutdowns due to the extreme heat which is adding another stress to their economy. The fact that heat is impacting China, Europe and the United States in extreme ways should be telling us that something needs to be done, and at least the recent legislation is taking some steps in that direction. The problem remains that large swaths of the population continue to disbelieve that there is anything man-made impacting the climate. It is hard to know what to do or say in terms of these conversations. At the same time, I understand the potential negative economic impact in the short term, and the legitimate concern on the part of some that this may not be anything other than a cyclic activity as opposed to one that reflects climate change. Nonetheless, I have to rely on what scientists are telling us.
A recent article by George Will had the title “China’s Decline May be Looming, Here is How the US Can Win, If It Chooses.” I usually enjoy George Will’s commentary because it is well written and well-reasoned. This type of headline, however, is emblematic of a critical issue that reoccurs almost daily in the media, that is the dramatic headline that appears to offer some tremendous insight, and doesn’t. China is not going away anytime soon, either economically nor militarily. This is the kind of thing that excites and misdirects people, and I am very disappointed in Mr. Will that he would adopt such an approach.
As the cases continue to wind through the federal court system arising out of the January 6th insurrection, it is interesting to me to hear what the Defendants have to say. Most of them making some admission or apology, although I tend to disbelieve that they actually mean that, nonetheless, it is being said. What I haven’t heard, however, is the rationale behind their theory of the insurrection. Was it merely to stop the steal, or was it to overthrow the government in general? One of the great curiosities to me is if the threats of the various militia groups and other supporters of Mr. Trump were to come to fruition, what would be the reaction of the business community and the public at large? Would even Trump supporters accept a disruption of their everyday lives, including the loss of their jobs, the inability to have their children educated, their inability to purchase food, the inability to purchase needed medications? What exactly do they think would come out of this insurrection, and how can Republicans, at least passively support this nonsense? It appears they don’t recognize what this means in practical terms. The US has remained strong since its creation because of the rule of law, the peaceful transfer of power from one administration to the next, all of which leads to a stable business environment and stable communities. I am bewildered by the lack of forethought.
Unfilled jobs remain high. As we noted earlier, new unemployment claims remain steady and low. I think these are good outcomes.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
The views expressed by commentators are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of this station or its management.