By Paul Tuthill
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Springfield, MA – One year after the start of the Arab Spring uprisings, the countries where totalitarian regimes were toppled face uncertain political futures and struggling economies, according to a Middle East expert who spoke Tuesday in western Massachusetts.. WAMC's Pioneer Valley Bureau Chief Paul Tuthill reports.
In Tunisia, Egypt,Yemen and Lybia, Islamic groups are the best organized of the many political parties and factions jockeying to control the fledgling democracies, according to Mark Hambley, a retired US Ambassador with 30 years of US diplomatic service including several postings in the Middle East. This , he says has big implications for US foreign policy.
And Hamley said unless a way can be found to start talks again between the Isrealis and Palestinians there will be another conflict.
Hambley spoke in downtown Springfield to an audience of more than 100 people at a program put on by the World Affairs Council of Western Massachusetts.
Reviewing the situation in several of the Arab countries he said Tunisia has enormous economic problems as its tourism business has plummeted. Egypt , which he said is the key to the region's stability is suffering from a lack of foreign investment. Yemen, where al-Qaida remains active may be on the way to becoming a failed state he warned. Lybia, which is to hold elections in June, has a large population of young people, who need jobs.
Hambley described Syria, where 5 thousand people have died in the last year, and thousands more have been imprisoned as a revolution in progress. The fighting there shows no signs of letting and a civil war appears to be developing.. Hambley doubts NATO will get involved in Syria as it did in Lybia.
Syria was stung by sanctions imposed by the Arab League, according to Hambley, who says the Syrian regime is being supported by Iran, which in turn he says it making threats about blocking the straits of Hormuz to drive up the price of oil.
Hambley says the Obama administration helped itself in the Middle East last year, by killing Osama Bin-laden, and by withdrawing US troops from Iraq on time..