For an organization that seemingly went unchanged for well over 100 years, the NCAA does seem to be evolving quickly. Perhaps it’s the classic lily pad phenomenon. Even though you only see a few lily pads on the surface, the reality is that the pond is about to be completely covered. So even though it seemed like college sports was barely ever going to change, in reality, a seismic shift was long underway.
That full scale evolution might become a reality later this week if the NCAA, led by its dominant Power 5 Conferences, agrees to settle a series of class action lawsuits that will do two things. One, back pay a bunch of money to former athletes who didn’t get to capitalize on name, image, and license opportunities. And two, put over 20% of future revenue over the next 10 years from the power conferences to go directly to student athletes. The total cost of the settlement is about $2.7 billion. But it would settle class action lawsuits that, if they went the wrong way, could cost the NCAA upwards of 20 billion. So I suppose it could be considered a bargain.
There’s a lot of confusing details in what would be a landmark decision. For starters, it’s not like all the schools in the NCAA agree on this. In particular, the smaller, Division I, often basketball only schools are way against it, as the Power 5 schools will only take on 40% of the financial hit – the other 60% goes to everyone else. And since the majority of the 2.7 billion comes from withholding future revenue distributions to college conferences largely from the NCAA Basketball Tournament, any school without the ability to generate significant cash from football is about to get really poor really quick. Beyond that, it’s not entirely clear how back pay would be distributed. Nor how future revenue sharing with athletes would work. There’s also questions of what happens to NIL collectives, roster sizes, and so on. So while this lawsuit would solve some problems – namely ending what would soon be a telephone book of class action lawsuits – college sports will still be plenty messy.
The real story here isn’t the back pay, although I’m sure that’s a big deal if you’re a graduate – and one not making money in the pros. The story here is the future, and how schools paying big time college football have essentially changed the game altogether. If this thing sticks, the top 70 or so college sports programs will officially move to a professional model, one where television contracts can be shared collectively across conference members and paid directly to athletes. That sounds a whole lot like, I don’t know, the NFL. Which means the still somewhat clear lines between college and the pros will be completely opaque. I suppose in the NFL you don’t have to take math and a language, although you pretty much skip that in college as well. But this would be the official, open door to make big time college sports a paid profession.
The second big story is the official divide between the haves and have nots. This settlement would codify an official difference between Power 5 schools and everyone else. Which means that in the near future, the difference between playing football for Alabama and, say, Kent State, would be like the difference between a Corvette and a matchbox car. And not for nothing, the big schools clearly don’t care, more than happy to negotiate and vote on a policy decision that is quite likely to sink their smaller brethren. Which also means that we’re likely at the cusp of college sports finally splintering into something much different than it is today.
And all of that might mean a lot more than you think. Like for all the families who have been chasing the brass ring of a Division I college scholarship – who knows what will even mean. And what does this all mean for events like the NCAA Basketball Tournament, which is predicated on a certain David vs. Goliath sensibility. That’s a lot harder when the Davids are all gone. And how should college football teams with players that earn more than the vast majority of university employees be held accountable to academic requirements? To be clear, this decision isn’t simply a shift in college sports finances. For big time universities, it changes everything.
That said, perhaps it’s been coming for some time. It’s just the lily pads were still underwater.
Keith Strudler is the director of the School of Communication and Media at Montclair State University. You can follow him at @KeithStrudler
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