The warming climate poses threats to the chocolate industry. Prolonged heat waves shrivel the leaves of cacao trees while dry spells impede pod growth and dry out soil moisture. Warmer temperatures favor destructive insects. These things threaten the livelihood of over 5 million farmers. Meanwhile, raw cacao prices continue to go up and up. The price of raw cacao tripled in 2024, raising consumer prices, leading to smaller bars, and reformulation of candies containing less chocolate.
But drought and heat waves are not the only threat to chocolate. Cacao farmers in West Africa are dealing with intense, crop-damaging downpours. Too much rain, arriving while cacao trees are flowering cause damage and favor the spread of fungal diseases.
Harvard researchers found that in Ghana, excess rain during the wet season, together with dry-season drought, explains about two-thirds of the year-to-year swings in the cacao harvest.
The research found that since cacao is especially vulnerable at certain stages of its growth cycle, adaptation must be precise. The researchers hope that their findings will help reduce future crop damage. Among the recommendations are encouraging more canopy cover to shield cacao flowers from large raindrops as well as retaining more leaf litter to prevent splashes from the ground that transmit infections from the soil to cacao pods.
Forecasting is important because heavy rains can be tied to larger climate patterns such as El Niño and shifts in Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. A hotter world is a threat to chocolate’s future, but not just because of the heat but also because of the rain.
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References:
Chocolate’s new climate threat: Too much rain
