The seductive nature of normalcy
By James Ketterer
In Greek mythology, Cassandra possessed the gift of prophesy but was fated to never be believed. I don’t claim to have prophetic powers, but I do know that most people fail to share my deep concerns about the immediate and profound dangers facing American democracy today. My concerns stem from the possibility that the results of the midterm elections will be undermined and the country could descend into an extended period of lawlessness and violence.
I am not by nature a wild-eyed conspiracy theorist or even a devoted partisan. I have worked in government for politicians from both sides of the aisle, I am a deep believer in our constitution and our institutions, governmental and otherwise. But increasingly we have seen a trampling of the checks and balances in the federal government that we all take for granted. And each time the new outrage becomes a new normal. Sometimes there is push back from the courts, but too often there is not.
What keeps me up at night is the real possibility that the federal government – at the direction of the White House – will simply refuse to accept the results of an election whose outcome they do not like. They will seize ballot boxes, manipulate and pressure local and state election officials, refuse to seat a Democrat majority in either house.
If citizens protest then it is easy to see the administration invoking the Insurrection Act and sending federal military troops to crackdown, leading to mass arrests, injuries and deaths. And this would likely be followed by the arrest of leading opposition figures, charging them with inciting violence and whatever else seems convenient at the moment. Many Americans would understandably retreat to their homes and their lives, and the fate of the republic would be sealed. There would be no recourse, no court decisions, no stalwart political opposition – there would be no one coming to save us.
This scenario is not just the result of fever dreams or unfounded fears; it has been laid out in detail by the current administration. These are the same people who attempted to upend the peaceful transfer of power on January 6, 2021. They returned to office with redoubled determination and this time with a plan of action. This plan appears to be underway already.
We have faced challenges and dangers before and somehow come out of them not only solid but stronger. But what we face now seems different, in degree and substance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
To be sure, there are others who have laid out similar concerns. Retired federal judge J. Michael Luttig has been sounding the alarm, as has the columnist David French. Neither can be dismissed as partisan attacks dogs; both have deep conservative credentials. As far as I can tell, neither is getting much traction.
I have spent much of my adult life living and working in – and on – questions of democracy and development in countries in the throes of authoritarianism. Places where people who disagree with their governments are arrested without charge, thrown into prison with undetermined sentences, tortured, deported, financially ruined and entire families targeted. These governments are not only violent but deeply corrupt and engaged in any number of criminal behaviors. There is no accountability because the rule of law is entirely absent. Constitutions are a mere piece of paper and elections are performative shams. From the Balkans to the Middle East and across Africa, I have seen with my own eyes how societies fall apart. I have seen how neighbors and families turn on one another; I have seen how the sense of loyal opposition is destroyed and replaced with show trials and charges of treason.
From my years of experience overseas, I see all the warning lights flashing red in the US. Looking from afar, it looks like a country on the verge of sliding into chaos. If it were another country in question, most of my fellow citizens would undoubtedly agree. But the U.S. is expected to be different.
People have an abiding belief that we are somehow different than other countries and therefore immune to the authoritarian undertow that has pulled other nations under. American exceptionalism is infused into the body politic. This is a dangerous and misplaced assumption.
For most Americans, they have had no direct experience with societal meltdown, they have not seen it and felt it. The Greatest Generation who fought fascism is now largely gone. There is a deep sense among most Americans that the guardrails and constitutional protections will eventually kick into gear, and things will return to normal.
But what evidence is there to support this? No court cases or political opposition have substantially thwarted the destruction of our institutions, the eroding of our alliances, or the alignment with despots and adversaries, the attacks on our universities, law firms, the media and our scientific establishment. The guardrails we were taught about appear to be flimsy at best. The Profiles in Courage that we read about are a mere historical relic.
But life goes on. Normalcy is the sign for many that things will be OK after all. And this is, I think, another reason that people feel convinced the system will right itself. People go to work, take their kids to school, watch baseball games and celebrate holidays. It’s not that bad, right? It doesn’t look like the newsreels from Europe in the 1930s.
But what most people don’t realize is that sense of normalcy is exactly the same in full-blown dictatorships. Daily life as lived in such places also feels normal. Sure, the news sources are all controlled, speech is limited, politics are circumscribed. Most of the limits are eventually internalized and self-censoring is the norm. That neighbor was always a loudmouth anyway, so good riddance. It all feels normal until there’s a knock at the door.
When I express these concerns to friends and colleagues, I am regularly met with bewilderment, polite disagreement, and gentle expressions of concern for my mental well-being. Even among those who follow politics closely, they see my fears about what I think is likely to happen during and after the elections are seen as an extreme outlier and an unlikely outcome.
Nobody – especially highly trained analysts - is rewarded for making outlier predictions, which is why the wild card events often show up as a major surprise. Pearl Harbor, 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis. Who wants to be the Cassandra at a party? Much easier to believe that things will somehow just get back to normal. As one very smart friend of mine recently said to me about my worries, “that’s just not a world I want to live in.” On that we agree.
As I continue to wonder why so few grasp what I see as the looming danger, the easiest answer is that I am just plain wrong. I want to be wrong. I want to believe that the elections will happen normally and there will be a peaceful and constitutional seating of a new Congress. Let me be Chicken Little instead of Cassandra.
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James Ketterer is director of extension programs and professor of practice at the American University of Armenia. He is a frequent panelist on The Roundtable.
