Democratic City Councilor Joan Shannon and Progressive State Representative Emma Mulvaney-Stanak are facing off in the race for mayor of Burlington, Vermont on Town Meeting Day in March. Democratic Mayor Miro Weinberger is not seeking a fifth three-year term.
WAMC’s North Country Bureau Chief Pat Bradley spoke with Middlebury College Professor of Political Science Bert Johnson about how the race might shake out.
Johnson: I think it'll be a policy driven campaign and I think it will hinge upon public safety. I think what we saw in the Democratic caucus was that Joan Shannon, with the endorsement of police and fire unions showed pretty surprising strength winning on the first ballot and what I had expected it to go to a second ballot. But I think what it says is that the issue of public safety is top of voters’ minds.
Bradley: You mentioned that Shannon was surprisingly voted the nominee on the first ballot, was the win, partially because of the endorsements that she received from the police and fire unions, do you think?
Well, I think it's pretty clear, given that she and Karen Paul have a lot of things in common. They had experience in common, they had similar backgrounds, but the difference between them was on this issue, on the vote to reduce the size of the police force. And so I think that and those endorsements probably made the difference.
Karen Paul also received a number of endorsements, but they were from high profile folks like former Governor Madeleine Kunin and former Governor Howard Dean. So it seems then that the people at least voting in the Democratic caucus, were more interested in the issue, rather than the political endorsements.
Yeah, that is part of the reason that I was surprised it didn't go to a second ballot. I thought with those big name endorsements that Karen Paul would do a little bit better than she did. So I do think it just suggests that, as you say, this issue of public safety is really dominating this race.
Now, the Progressives for a long time have been working to revamp policing in the city and how public safety is approached. What do you expect this race to look like considering the plans that Joan Shannon has put out and what we expect from Mulvaney-Stanak, who is the progressive candidate?
I think, John Shannon is going to try to box in Emma Mulvaney-Stanak on this public safety issue. The Progresses have this reputation, as you know, rightly or wrongly, fairly or unfairly, as favoring defunding the police. And so I think what Shannon is going to try to do is to say she was not in favor of that from the beginning. And she's also going to try to outflank them a little bit by saying, she understands the need as she says, community policing, and measures to deescalate conflict and reduce police violence, but at the same time, as the police are fully supported. So I think she's going to try to solidify the base in terms of those who want to support the police, but also to draw away some of that Progressive support by saying she's not against other kinds of measures like community policing and alternative conflict resolution.
Well, the Progressives for a long time before Miro Weinberger took the office had controlled City Hall. And then the Democrats came in, Miro Weinberger has been in office almost 12 years. And the Progressives have been back and forth on the city council. Are there other issues that the Progressives might be able to create a strategy that could deflect from the public safety issues that seem to be the key focus in the beginning of this campaign?
Yeah, I think they're in a tough spot. I think if you had to say, okay, what are the alternative issues where the Progressives could gain some ground? I think it would be in the area of things like housing, which is an issue that they've talked a lot about, as have many people in this state and the city. But it's going to be hard to take the spotlight away from public safety.
Where are the Republicans in all of this? And which way do you think they'll end up voting?
I don't see a candidate on the horizon. Maybe one will arrive. But yeah, I think they're in the position of, you know, having to choose between a Democrat and a Progressive and I imagine, given where they sit on the ideological spectrum, a Democrat is closer to them than a Progressive.
And will the council races be important in conjunction with the mayoral race?
Yes, I think they will. I think what is going to be important to look for is how much the Democratic strength extends into the city council races. We will see whether they can maintain their control of the city council, which they have had, but it's gone back and forth over the years. And that'll definitely affect the environment in which the new mayor has to govern.
One of the things that when the Democratic caucus began, they really talked about the fact that it was the biggest caucus they'd ever had. Now, some of it was in-person, a lot of it was virtual. So I don't know how big a factor that was. But with this record number of Democrats participating in the caucus, is that perhaps a sign of Town Meeting Day voting interest, whether it's Democrats or Progressives or Republicans? I mean, do you anticipate we're going to have a huge turnout, or can we tell at this point?
It's hard to say because I think part of the high turnout in the caucus had to do with the intensity of competition. I think it was perceived as being quite a close call between Joan Shannon and Karen Paul. And then you had a third strong candidate in C.D. Mattison, who was also actively mobilizing people. So if we have that same level of competition in the general election, then yes, I do think there'll be a higher turnout. But that remains to be seen.
We are going into the holidays very soon. When do you expect the campaigns to really ramp up I mean, Town Meeting Day is in March, there's not a lot of time overall.
Right. I think maybe there'll be a little bit of a break for the holidays, but I would expect the campaigns to get back, you know as soon as the New Year.
