The 2024 presidential campaign got a jolt when former President Donald Trump appeared in a Florida court to face dozens of counts related to his handling of top-secret documents and efforts to obstruct justice. Republicans around the country are now deciding whether to break with the party leader or embrace his claims about the special prosecutor.
On the Democratic side, President Biden is trying to build enthusiasm amid mounting concerns about his age as he runs for a second term.
Quinnipiac University poll analyst Tim Malloy spoke with WAMC's Ian Pickus about the latest poll results.
Ok, if the election was held today, how do things shake out?
Pretty much dead heat. Biden up by four over Trump, which, as you know, because you do politics, is that it doesn't mean it a darn thing. It would be a disputed outcome. If it were held today. Very close.
As we speak here in mid-June, is it fair to say that Trump is the frontrunner among Republicans?
It's fair to say by a mile. By 30-points over DeSantis everybody else is way down the road. So, Trump is way ahead right now. And though our polling just ended before the Miami situation, he is not losing any ground with his base, he's still in very, very strong position.
In other words, the poll was taken after word of the indictment but before the court appearance. So, Republicans have not broken from him?
Exactly. But what does that mean? Next time we poll, which is soon, we'll find out whether there's anything chipped away at the armor.
We talk with you sometimes about Florida politics. How is Governor Ron DeSantis faring?
In his state, he's very popular in the race against Donald Trump, like I said, it's a 30 percent deficit so he's not doing very well at all. As far as the state goes, it's a volatile time in this state. He has detractors, but as a governor he was elected by a large margin and he's remained popular.
Is there a clear number two among current GOP presidential candidates?
Absolutely. It's 53 percent Trump, 23 percent DeSantis. Down the line you've got Pence, Haley, Scott, Christie all 4%. And then everybody else is sort of not showing up. So, it's only a two-person race at the moment. As we say, it's lots of golf to play. It's a crazy time right now. Who knows what the second diamond means? Or the third or the fourth? If there are such a thing.
In terms of the Biden-Trump matchup that you've been tracking, how has that changed in this poll as compared to recent ones?
It hasn't wavered much. I think Biden has picked up a little bit. Interestingly we asked the favorable versus unfavorable and unfavorable risk favorable. Favorable is basically what do you think overall of the human being, the history of what they've done, what they may do? Biden has a 42 percent of favorable, Trump has a 37 percent favorable. So, it's not a big gap. But it means people like Biden more, generally. And this is all Americans, registered voters. This is not Republican versus Democrats, it's everybody. And DeSantis has a 33 percent favorable. Robert Kennedy Jr. has a 31 percent favorable. So, it's interesting, but Biden right now remains on top of that very sort of touchy-feely category of favorable, unfavorable.
Does he face any sort of significant threat from RFK Jr.?
No one can quite figure this one out, nor can we. We've not polled this much at all other than just where's is his favorability and popularity? It could be that Kennedy's name is well known. It could be people are looking to alternative to an older president. I don't have much on Kennedy because we haven't done much on him. We will if his numbers keep going into where they are.
How is Biden doing in terms of job approval among Americans right now?
Job approval is up actually. It's up to 42 percent, which is not great, but it was down to 38 in May. So, a little bit of bump there. He does ok on Ukraine, foreign policy he does OK. I mean, anything 40 to 50 percent is decent. He's not a tremendously popular president, but he has had a bump in job approval.
If a president is hovering around 40 percent approval, sometimes President Trump was below that a bit or just a little bit higher and Biden's been struggling to build beyond 40, does that by definition set up a close race most likely in the next election?
Yes, I would think so. Everybody wants 50 percent. Usually like a governor, if I can get 50 percent as a governor, I'm a happy person. But yes, if they're both in the 40s or high 30s and it's a race between the two of them, it'd be a close race, and it is.
What are some of the key issues that voters are tracking according to your new poll?
I think the most interesting thing this time around was we asked most important election issue, and it was a long list of things, economy, abortion, gun violence, immigration, health care and racial inequality, climate change. Top one, most important issue to Americans is the economy, 30 percent, followed very closely by democracy in the United States meaning, and that's this popped out and this may be an indication of where we are emotionally, historically, that people are worried about the bedrock of the country to democracy. These are times where I think Americans are dealing with the fact that this could be a very, very ugly run up to an election. You've got a former president indicted twice. You've got an older president; a lot of people don't want. It's a fractious time. And so, when we see preserving democracy as a deep concern to Americans, that says something.
It occurs to me and it depends on maybe how you asked it, but partisans from both sides could give you that answer and mean very different things.
That's a very, very good observation; mine exactly when we saw it. What does that mean? It can mean polar opposite things, depending on where you are on the political fence. So, I think it's a good question, but you got to really read between the lines, and I don't know that we can get you a real answer on what that really means. It does mean that there's concern. That's what it means. It's not a happy time.
One more thing about Biden's age. How trenchant is that issue among people who really are going to have to make a choice? And as we speak, today, most likely Biden is going to be one of the choices.
Well, we didn't do it in this poll, but in a previous one people perceived Biden as too old to be president in a far greater number than they perceived Trump to be, even though it's a four-year difference. In fact, our headline was, what a difference four years makes, or three and a half years. So, it is a big deal. It's a big deal in the Democratic party, it's a big deal with registered voters. His age is an issue more than it is for Trump.
Which is interesting because Trump would also be so old relative to the presidents we've elected before.
Absolutely, he'd be 80, eventually while he's president, if he's president.
