On August 15th Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called national elections, two years into the current term. It was an early call for an election and after Canadians went to the polls on Monday, little changed. Trudeau will remain Prime Minister and his Liberal party will again lead a minority government.
SUNY Plattsburgh Center for the Study of Canada Director Christopher Kirkey says Trudeau’s strategy in calling the early election to gain a majority government didn’t engage voters.
"His thought was, his advisors thoughts were, that now is a good time. You know we've got a reasonably good public opinion polls with respect to our response to the pandemic and other issues. Now's the time to convert our minority government position to a majority. You know, I think at least three quarters of the Canadians were not sold on the need to have a national election during a pandemic. There was that issue," Kirkey explains. "There was a sort of the exit from Afghanistan issue that that sort of was a bit troubling. There was a question of whether the prime minister was really connecting up until about the last 10 or 12 days of the campaign with Canadians. And the Conservative Party had pivoted to try and present themselves as sort of as a gentler, kinder, more progressive looking party to the nation, more centrist if you will, then in the past. And sort of these combination of factors seemed to challenge the Liberals and ultimately, you know, they emerged, they're going to emerge with approximately 158 seats, which you know, it's amazing. When you look at the, it's almost a carbon copy for the major political parties, the Liberals, the Conservatives, the New Democrats, and even the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec. In terms of the final outcome another minority government."
Chris Kirkey, one of the things that you mentioned was Trudeau's ego being an issue basically," notes Pat Bradley. "And I saw some newspaper reports from Canada especially towards the end of the campaign about some of the opponents trying to use that against him. Is that something he's going to have to tread carefully as he forms the minority government? Or is that going to be a factor at all since the numbers here are so similar anyway?"
"I think it's a bit problematic for him within the liberal caucus," says Kirkey, "because there's a lot of folks who thought perhaps the Liberals would capture a majority government, get at least 170 seats in the 338 seat Canadian House of Commons. Which they obviously haven't. And so there's going to be some voices of disgruntlement towards Mr. Trudeau's decision to go forward on that. But it's clear if there's if there's anything that emerged is that Mr. Trudeau is staying on as prime minister. It's more challenging I think for some of his counterparts. Erin O'Toole as the leader of the Conservative Party. You've got a particular wing of the Conservative Party that are socially conservative right of center, who aren't happy with what he's done on questions of, you know, pro-abortion stance, a pro LGBTQ-plus stance, in favor of lock downs, of vaccine passports and other things and gun control, to name a few and being pro carbon tax which he switched during the campaign. So a bigger challenge might be to see how Mr. O'Toole remains in place and effectively bridges these coalitions within the Conservative Party."
"Well Mr. O'Toole is the leader of the Conservative Party," notes Bradley. "As I understand it there were six parties vying for seats in the Parliament and therefore for Prime Minister. You've got the Liberal, Conservative, the Parti Quebecois, the NDP, the Green, and then the PPC which I'm not as familiar with. Will this election lead to changes in leadership? You've hinted at the Conservative Party. But in some of the parties like the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP, do they look like they'll have party leadership changes?"
I don't believe so," says Chris Kirkey. "And I'm certain that Mr. O'Toole is prepared to fight off any kind of challenges that come his way in the Conservatives. But no there won't be any significant changes. Everybody's expected to sort of stay the course and do what they're doing. You know it's amazing to see that you can have an election, even a quick election like they have here in Canada, and effectively return the same results. It's amazing."
"Do you think that Prime Minister Trudeau will change any of his cabinet members?" asks Bradley.
"Well, there'll be some shuffling," muses Kirkey. "There were a couple of cabinet members who were defeated. So for that reason alone there'll be some new faces. But yes I think there will certainly be some shuffling. But as the Prime Minister said in his remarks, victory speech I guess you might say, it's time to get back to work. I think we shouldn't expect to see anything radically different. When Parliament reconvenes I think you're looking at a government who is you know going to continue particularly on the on social and economic front to move in the direction they've stated."
The next scheduled election is in four years. But if the Prime Minister calls an earlier election, voting must occur within 36 to 50 days.
