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Hillary Sinks In New Siena Poll

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A new Siena poll shows Donald Trump as the favorite among New York Republicans, but perhaps more telling, Hillary Clinton is being viewed unfavorably among state voters for the first time ever. 

The political winds of change are shifting, if the new survey is any indication. For the first time in the 11 years Siena has been polling in New York, Hillary Clinton is underwater with New York voters. Siena pollster Steve Greenberg says they appear to be upset with Clinton.   "Only 46 percent of New York State voters right now view Hillary Clinton favorably. 51 percent view her unfavorably. Just two months ago, in July, she was at 56 favorable, 40 per cent unfavorable, so a net down of 21 points in the last two months. And it's across the board, she's down 19 points with Democrats, 23 with Republicans, 25 with independent voters."

While Clinton may have lost some support in New York, a new national CNN/ORC poll shows she is is backed by 42 percent of Democratic primary voters across the country, compared to 24 percent for Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and 22 percent for Vice President Joe Biden.

Clinton's national numbers are up from a September CNN/ORC poll that found her ahead of Sanders, 37 percent to 27 percent, with Biden at 20 percent.  Siena asked voters "Do you think Joe Biden should run for President?"    "The majority, 53 percent, say 'yes' they'd like to see the vice president run for president. And then we asked those same New York Democrats, if the presidential primary were held today, who would you support among Biden, Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Clinton still has a significant lead. 45 per cent of New York Democrats say she's their choice in the Democratic nomination for president, compared to 24 percent for Biden, 23 percent for Sanders."

WAMC's Political Observer Alan Chartock, in his morning commentary, says this could be Biden's chance to "grab the golden ring."    "Obviously you get a chance to be president of the United States when you've been vice president for this long and you'd probably take the chance. We do know that its going to take a massive effort on his part to collect the money and get the donors. Hillary has a huge lead in all of this, but, if you were Biden, what would you do? And if your son had urged you to run on his deathbed, of course... so it makes a certain amount of sense. Just because he comes in doesn't mean he can do it by the way, he'd be way behind."

Siena also delved into Donald Trump's chances of attaining the highest office in the land... again, Steve Greenberg   "Donald Trump is a contradiction in terms. What I mean by that is, among all New York voters, he's got a 2 to 1 unfavorable rating. Among all New York voters, 33 per cent view Donald Trump favorably, 65 percent view him unfavorably. However, among Republicans, Donald Trump, very favorable. 60 percent of Republicans in New York view Trump favorably, compared to 38 percent who view him unfavorably.. When we asked New York republicans 'who's your choice right now for the Republican nomination for president?' Donald Trump way in front 34 percent of Republicans say Trumps their guy, followed by Ben Carson at 14 percent, Jeb Bush at 11 percent and ther est of the candidates in single digits. But at the same time, when we asked Republicans 'who is the one candidate you would least like to see for your nominee, Trump wins that one as well, with 25 per cent of Republicans saying he's the candidate they would least like to see be their nominee."

The Siena College Poll was conducted September 14 through 17 by telephone calls to 817 New York State registered voters, including 378 Democrats and 214 Republicans. Respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest male in the household.  It has an overall margin of error of  4.0 percentage points.

Dave Lucas is WAMC’s Capital Region Bureau Chief. Born and raised in Albany, he’s been involved in nearly every aspect of local radio since 1981. Before joining WAMC, Dave was a reporter and anchor at WGY in Schenectady. Prior to that he hosted talk shows on WYJB and WROW, including the 1999 series of overnight radio broadcasts tracking the JonBenet Ramsey murder case with a cast of callers and characters from all over the world via the internet. In 2012, Dave received a Communicator Award of Distinction for his WAMC news story "Fail: The NYS Flood Panel," which explores whether the damage from Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee could have been prevented or at least curbed. Dave began his radio career as a “morning personality” at WABY in Albany.
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