With Vermont’s campaign season getting an unusually early start, the Castleton Polling Institute issued a new poll this week assessing the name recognition and favorability rating of people who have declared their candidacy or are considering running for governor.
The race will not be decided until November 2016, and the Democratic and Republican primaries will not be held until August 9th, but the first poll is out.
The Castleton Polling Institute survey of gubernatorial recognition and favorability shows the current frontrunner in the Republican primary, Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott, with 77 percent name recognition and high favorability ratings while his challenger Bruce Lisman is virtually unknown.
Among the Democrats, House Speaker Shap Smith leads fellow contenders Matt Dunne and Sue Minter in name recognition, but he has work to do with 38 percent of Vermonters unfamiliar with him.
Castleton Polling Institute Director Rich Clark admits that the poll is early and most Vermonters are probably not yet paying attention to the race. “The presidential race has taken so much oxygen and so much space in the press, and then Sanders is really on the minds and the discussions of everybody here that the gubernatorial race has been a forgotten race. But it’s going to be an open seat and so when it does heat up it’s going to heat up to a high degree.”
Lisman was one of the first to join the race. The poll shows 79 percent of Vermont voters have not heard of the retired Wall Street businessman. Lisman isn’t surprised. “There’s such a long rampway between now and a primary. What I hope to accomplish in the next three to six months, and then beyond of course ‘cause the primary not for nearly a year away, is to tell people about me and what I believe in. What they’ll hear is a non-politician. Not the usual guy. And so they would have every expectation of hearing different things and getting different kinds of results than they used to. Opportunity of a lifetime.”
The poll indicates name recognition for Minter, the latest Democrat to enter the gubernatorial race after resigning as transportation secretary, is very low with 60 percent of Vermonters unfamiliar with her. Minter notes that she’s been in the race for only about a week and considers the poll a baseline. “Since most of it was being taken while I was still the Secretary of Transportation it’s about what I would expect. You know I think we’re less than a mile into what’s going to be a very solid marathon. We have a year to go. I’m ready to run long and hard and give people a chance to know me and hear what I’m about.”
Middlebury College Political Science Department Chair Bert Johnson doubts the poll will have an impact on the campaigns in part because it is so early in the election cycle. “Castleton was smart in that they are just looking at favorability and recognition. If you ask people who they’re going to vote for at this point a large number of people don’t know who they’re going to vote for. So instead if you ask about recognition and you ask about favorability even that’s something that people might have a more formed opinion on.”
The Castleton Polling Institute issued a follow-up issues poll. Vermonters’ key concerns are the economy, jobs and the cost of living. It also found that 59 percent of Vermonters support school mergers and 74 percent support the creation of a state ethics commission.
