A new survey in New York’s 18th Congressional District shows the Republican challenger leading the incumbent. The survey is out ahead of a debate this evening.
The Siena College survey released October 15 re-contacted 253 likely voters from a sample of 590 voters in a poll from early September and found Republican Nan Hayworth with an 11-point lead over Democratic incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney, 52 percent to 41 percent. Siena College poll spokesman Steven Greenberg underscores that the survey is not a poll and is unscientific.
“This is a different kind of instrument. This is much more anecdotal. It is not a scientific sample,” Greenberg says. “And we did it to help TWC News in advance of their debate this evening.”
He says Siena rarely conducts such a survey. Time Warner Cable News is airing a debate between Maloney and former Congresswoman Hayworth at 7 p.m. Again, Greenberg.
“What we can take away is that this is clearly going to be a nail-biter heading into the final 20 days of the campaign,” says Greenberg. “And it is likely to be a nail-biter going into election night.”
A Maloney campaign spokeswoman declined to comment. Terrence Michos is a spokesman for Hayworth.
“We’re obviously encouraged. It’s a snapshot. We know that there’s three weeks left and we know that the Democratic PACs [political action committees] have been, and will continue to throw money in,” says Michos. “But we see what’s happening in this poll what we see happening on the ground. People are turning toward the congresswoman. They feel that we’re on the wrong path here in the country. And the congresswoman has been in every municipality two and three times since two weeks after she lost the election last time. And people know her and they know that she’s level headed, that she has them in mind.”
Again, though Michos says “poll,” he does recognize it is an unscientific survey, which comes one month after a Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll showed Maloney leading by eight points, with 50 percent of the vote over Hayworth, who garnered 42 percent. The race was close in 2012, when redistricting came into play, pushing the district slightly Democratic. Again, Greenberg.
“It is clear that given the results two years ago, given the poll a month ago, given all that is going on in this district and the makeup of this district that this is going to be a close race,” says Greenberg.
Meanwhile, Maloney, who continually emphasizes his ability to work across the aisle and get things done, especially with Republican Chris Gibson of the 19th District, has some endorsements from Republican elected officials. And while Gibson and Maloney frequently refer to each other when it comes to bipartisanship and accomplishments, Gibson says he will not endorse either candidate in the 18th district. Gibson was Hayworth’s colleague during the last Congress.
“Well, they’re both good people. I’ve worked with both of them. I got a lot done with both of them. So, obviously I’ve got enough to do over here in the 19th, and so I won’t be getting involved in that race because I’ve got enough to do here,” says Gibson. “And look, I just respect anyone that will focus, whether that be Nan or Sean Patrick, that will focus on delivering results for their people. And given the fact that our districts touch each other, it makes sense that we share a lot in common and that we would work together because at the end of the day, once the elections are done, we need to produce, we’ve got to bring results.”
And here’s Maloney.
“Look, the important thing is that we’re working great together. If you look at the Lyme disease legislation he and I passed through the House, that’s the most important Lyme disease legislation that’s even been passed in Congress. He and I are working hand in glove on that. If you look at our work to stop these FERC [Federal Energy Regulatory Commission] energy price hike, those are results that speak for themselves. So I’m going to keep working with Chris Gibson and lots of other guys,” says Maloney. “Look, this is a campaign season. It will be over soon enough. The important thing is can we work together when it’s over. And I’ve got a record of doing that and I’m looking forward to doing it again. And that’s what I’m asking people to renew this two-year contract and let me keep fighting for our families here in the Hudson Valley.”
The few unlikely cheerleaders for Maloney include longtime Republican state Senator Bill Larkin, who appears in a web ad touting Maloney’s integrity and commitment to the district. Hayworth says she has the support of most other local Republicans as well as those from other parties.
“Senator Larkin and I worked very well together,” says Hayworth. “He obviously has his own race to run in a district that was also quite a bit changed in 2012, so there you go.”
Outgoing Republican Senator Greg Ball, recently ranked as the most conservative senator by the New York State Conservative Party, endorses Maloney, having launched “Veterans for Maloney.” Ball traveled down the path of a congressional run in 2010, but veered off ahead of any primary when Hayworth entered the race.
The 18th District includes all of Orange and Putnam Counties along with parts of Dutchess and Westchester Counties.
