Mr. Trump has reneged on another promise – that is to promote IVF. He has now said he will take no steps to support that program which is invaluable to many families.
In reviewing some statistics on Canadian imports, I found that 94% are eligible for the USMCA, but only 38% are currently using it. The difference in the usage is due to the WTO rules which reduce the need for utilization of the USMCA, at least until recently. I contacted a customs broker who I know quite well, Rob Casey, who indicated that this is a relatively simple matter for most exporters from Canada to comply with the USMCA. It is a matter of completing the necessary paperwork; however, the importer must have the backup information to support the fact that this is Canadian product as defined under the USMCA, which given the amount of integration in the supply chain can create some issues, but they are nonetheless largely solvable. There are still substantial tariffs on non-USMCA products and some which would be excluded from USMCA.
The FBI is reporting a 4.5% drop in violent crime last year, which may be another statistic Mr. Trump would like to see silenced, as it does not fit into his message in terms of crime, law, and order, and, of course, immigrants.
I commented in recent weeks about whether or not the Chinese were selling raw earth minerals in accordance with their recent agreement with Mr. Trump. It appears they are not, as at least one importer of drone parts that supplies the US military was forced to delay orders by as long as two months while it searched for a non-Chinese source of magnets, which are assembled from rare earth minerals. It appears the Chinese have done just as I predicted in that they are slow rolling the rare earth minerals while they continue to negotiate, but the negotiation is really nothing more than an advanced slow-roll, and again, they have outsmarted Mr. Trump.
It appears some Senators, Republicans, are criticizing Mr. Trump for the firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Chief. Some, however, like Senator Murkowski are trying to walk the line by saying, in effect, it is not a good idea to do, but I am not going to the next step and say there was an error.
Mr. Trump during the campaign claimed he was going to lower drug prices, anywhere from 50% to a 1000%. Again, we get a demonstration of incredible math skills, as once the price is reduced by 100%, the drug maker is making zero revenue and zero profit. This makes absolutely no sense, and the fact that some of his supporters believed this information raises real questions about their ability to analyze facts. It is interesting to note that nothing has happened with drug prices, and the only way he is going to move that process along is through an executive order which I think will be of questionable legal validity since that is, in effect, a taking under the 4th Amendment of the Constitution. The only area where he has recourse is, of course, through purchases by Medicare and Medicaid, as he could simply direct that the maximum amount that the government would reimburse would have the effect, if you will, of reducing payments to the drug companies. That is a contractual matter, and doable by the President.
One of the facts that has been ignored so far in the debate about tariffs is that for every dollar of tariffs that are imposed and passed on to the consumer, there is the imposition of sales tax on top of it, which means a 15% tariff converts to a 22%-23% tariff, depending upon the sales tax rate. Who is paying? We are, but Mr. Trump and his administration pay no heed to that and certainly have not highlighted that fact. The New York State Comptroller announced that sales tax is going up throughout the state, so we are only beginning to see the implications of the tariff issue on sales tax.
The Feds core inflation marker was up .3% last month which also apparently weighed heavily on the Fed in terms of interest rates. We also learned that the only two Fed Governors who were in support of lowering interest rates were, of course, Mr. Trump’s appointees, which is not uncommon for the people who someone appoints to have the same perspective.
Recent stories regarding the investigation by the Republican special prosecutor, Mr. Durham, discloses that the Clinton e-mails that appeared to describe a plan by the Clinton Campaign and other Government Officials like Mr. Obama, to make it appear as if Mr. Trump was involved with the Russians were, according to Mr. Durham, actually Russian generated, and he acknowledged that he spent a great deal of time trying to prove that they were created by Democrats, but was left ultimately with the conclusion that they were Russian generated. This goes a long way to disemboweling the theories that Republicans have operated under and are pushing to the public, but of course, this was not given much, if any, publicity until the recent release of an appendix to Mr. Durham’s report, which is obviously part of the overall plan of distracting from Epstein.
Over 20 Arab countries have called upon Hamas to disarm and disband so that a peace accord can be reached, and to give some new life to a Palestinian State. It is interesting to me that simultaneously we have a variety of western countries indicating they will recognize the need for a Palestinian State. This has got to be a diplomatically coordinated move, as I suspect everyone believes that it is almost going to be impossible to get to peace without this type of diplomatic pressure and coordination.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
The views expressed by commentators are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of this station or its management.
