It has been reported that household income growth is slowing, which poses a risk obviously to consumer spending and more generally to the economy given the fact that consumer spending represents in the range of 65% of our GDP. This taken together with rising inflation, rising food costs, rising gas prices, all does not trend well.
As issues with the Trump/Musk actions become more heated, and Republicans hear more from their constituents as is happening during many town halls, how will Republicans respond? Will they continue to support Mr. Trump? Will they call on him to modify activity? None of this is clear, and I suspect not clear in their minds either, as the threat of a primary hangs ever present. The response of Republican leadership was simple. No more town halls.
Liberals in Canada want to say thank you Donald. Their poll numbers jumped 26 points over the Conservatives giving them a 2-point lead. This follows the resurgence of the liberal equivalent in Germany’s most recent election. By the way, the liberal party’s election is March 9th.
Applications for unemployment benefits rose 22,000 to 242,000 while economists had predicted 221,000.
Trump will impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China as retaliation for failing to stop the flow of fentanyl. Canada seizures in the last year – 43 pounds, Mexico’s seizures – 21,100 pounds. Tariffs exactly the same, this makes no sense.
Mr. Trump’s proposal for reciprocal tariffs has a certain visceral ring to it. The impact of the tariffs, nonetheless, is on the American public and not on the companies that are purchasing the goods, nor those that are sending the goods into the United States. I do understand, however, that it is very attractive to take the position that we do not want these businesses and countries to take advantage of us, so I am prepared to accept reciprocal tariffs on that basis for a short period, and to see exactly how they play out. I suspect poorly for us, but we’ll let the facts speak.
One of the more amusing stories that I read, and there were several, was that the American hockey players were unhappy with Canadians booing at our national anthem during the NHL tournament. Obviously, the hockey players don’t read the news, or they are Trump supporters, and cannot appreciate why the imposition of tariffs and the threat of trying to make Canada the 51st state would be less than amusing to Canadians. These players need to grow up and get a little bit of education before they start making commentary.
The fed pauses any further rate cuts, as the concern with tariffs and inflation continues. This is a good indication that Mr. Trump has not met his promises on so many levels.
In the category of hard to believe this, virtually all of Trump’s cabinet picks have made ridiculous comments that simply parrot Mr. Trump, but do not, in fact, reflect the facts on the ground, only the wishes of Mr. Trump. His demand for loyalty lest they lose their coveted positions is painful to watch.
It was recently reported that DOGE deleted five claims on savings which were the biggest that they have reported to date. There was no explanation given, and there has been no correction nor additions to the list. Claims versus reality, claims lose. Some fact checking has been done which indicates that the claims are outrageously wrong, where they claim 8 billion it really converts to about 800 million.
Some Republicans sharply criticized Trump’s embrace of Russia at the UN, in what appears to be an abrupt pivot to benefit Russia.
Consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest level since 2021, inflation fears take over and evidence of inflation continues to mount, at least in some areas. Pick eggs, fuel... This is all before tariffs actually take hold.
In terms of unfulfilled promises, the war on Ukraine continues and seems to be getting sloppier in terms of diplomacy. Inflation has not been cured. Deportation is going more slowly than Mr. Trump anticipated, and in fact they are not necessarily deporting those with criminal records which was supposed to be their first targets, but virtually any illegal immigrant. We’ll see where all of this takes us, but as we can tell from the town halls that are being held, there is ample criticism even in red states. So maybe we’ll see a change coming.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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