Popular Mechanics has published an article indicating that a 400-year-old clue buried in a map of the new world discloses what may have happened to the Roanoke colony. It appears that it moved about 100 miles north of its original location and then disappeared. But, it does at least leave a trail to this mystery which has befuddled archeologists and historians for years.
It appears Mr. Trump’s margin of victory continues to shrink, and he is now below 50% of the vote total which makes the outcome not a landslide, and that with less than 50% of the popular vote not a mandate.
The House now stands at 220 to 215, leaving Republicans very little room for error. I had been predicting 221 to 222 versus 213 to 214, so within the margin of error.
GDP last month was 2.8% and the economy created 277,000 new jobs which are both healthy levels of growth for the economy, and again, creates the contrast between what people were feeling, and what the economy was actually doing.
Mr. Trudeau made a trip to Mar-a-Lago to try and fend off the proposed tariffs on Canadian goods, and I suspect he raised with Mr. Trump the fact that a substantial amount of crude oil is exported by Canada to the United States, and how this helps the US in its energy production and independence. My suspicion is that Mr. Trump does not really care about that as what he wants to do is simply fulfill the promise to raise tariffs and create American jobs. Of course, most experts believe it will have the exact opposite effect, that is it will decrease jobs and raise inflation. Mexico is doing everything it can to stave off the tariffs, but that is more driven by Mr. Trump’s desire to close the southern border, and in reality, he needs Mexico’s help, so putting pressure on them in this way does make some sense.
One of the major of pieces of legislation Republicans will have to do deal with is the extension of the tax credits which expire at the end of 2025. They are trying to move forward in a way that does not increase the debt and deficit, as it did during Mr. Trump’s first administration when he added $6 trillion to the deficit. The Republicans, as can be expected, are looking to cut programs that Democrats favor, but they also struggle with their own Freedom Caucus as they try and move this legislation forward. The tax cuts are expected to cost $4.6 trillion over the next 10 years.
I recently saw a fascinating document which showed the unemployment rate by President from 1948 to 2024. It shows that when Mr. Biden took office the rate was 6.4% and when he is leaving office it will be 4.3%, while when Mr. Trump was in office, he started off with a 4.7% rate which he inherited from Mr. Obama, when he left office, it was 6.4%, so he was up 36% to Mr. Biden’s decline of 32%. Go figure, as to how the public votes.
On a personal note, Ireland is apparently awash in cash due to the pressure that was put on by the United States and the EU to eliminate low corporate tax rates, what we know as tax havens, but because of the way Ireland had structured its tax rates, the forced reductions had little impact on it, and so it continues to garner investment from overseas, particularly the United States, which in the end results in tax revenue. This result has allowed Ireland to fund two sovereign wealth funds, and make substantial investments in its communities. I would note that Britian is going in the opposite direction.
The Mexican President has warned that the tariffs Mr. Trump wants to impose on Mexico could result in 400,000 US jobs being lost, as well as threatening retaliation. It appears to me that Mr. Trump does not recognize the fact that all of these countries he imposes tariffs on will, in fact, retaliate, and what the impact will be on the US is likely increased costs for consumers and inflation. The Mexican President has also put forward data which suggests that food prices would jump substantially and likely so would car costs, because so much of the production of car parts and food takes place in Mexico and Canada
Popular Mechanics published an article recently in which a scientist said humans will go backwards in time within just five years, meaning that our aging process will slow down, it sounds a little too good to be true which normally means that it is not. Nonetheless, as we get older it is not bad news, at least there is some hope out there.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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