It has recently been reported that scientists looking for fossil fuels beneath the ground of northeastern France used a highly sophisticated specialized probe to go hundreds of meters down. What the probe found was not the typical fossil fuels but rather hydrogen whose concentration thickened to the point of a 20% level. They estimated the deposit to be between 6,000,000 and 50,000,000 metric tons of hydrogen, known as white hydrogen, and also frequently referred to as natural, gold or geologic hydrogen. This type of hydrogen when burned only produces water, thus, making it an attractive, clean energy source for industries like aviation, shipping, steel and other large energy users who find it almost impossible to meet their needs with renewables such as solar and wind. This is significant and when we look at some of the other recent surprise finds in terms of alternative forms of energy, we may for the first time be looking at real break throughs.
Scientists have also discovered ancient rock carvings in the Amazon, as the waters of the Amazon are receding. This is not unlike other recent finds in terms of carvings, footprints, etc., which provide an interesting insight into ancient civilizations. It may well be that as we go through this warming event, we are going to discover many things that we had no idea existed which is fascinating at so many levels. I am not necessarily saying I think these climate change discoveries are a good thing, but it is certainly interesting.
On the economic front, Morgan Stanley recently made a bold prediction regarding the housing market in 2024. The premise for their prognostication is that interest rates stay at 8% or higher for home mortgages which Morgan Stanley predicts would result in a big hit for home prices. Currently, mortgage rates are 8.08, however, there is little indication that the Fed will continue to raise the fed rate which, in turn, causes mortgage rates to increase. This is another one of those predictions that has some tricky assumptions built in, and I think we are all hoping that we don’t see home mortgage rates at 8% on a consistent basis over the next 14 months.
Recent reports indicate that the melting of the Antarctic ice shelf is likely to continue, and if it does, it could cause sea levels to rise as much as 10 feet over the next century with significant increases in sea level in the near term. The impact on many low-lying islands, the city of Miami, as well as many other resort communities could be enormous. In addition, the warming water has already proved that it is causing the intensity and velocity of storms to increase many fold. These low-lying locations will not only experience higher water, but likely many damaging storms. How we respond to this, do we keep building in those areas, and rebuild after intense storms, or actually take steps to move structures and people out of harm’s way? The later seems unlikely with our Republican friends having significant impact on government and legislation.
Speaker Johnson is off to a rapacious start by holding hostage aid to Israel to a reduction in IRS funding. I wonder how the Israelis feel about this tactic, and the support that they have counted on from Republicans? It strikes me that Republicans are treating Israel like any other political opportunity, and have no interest in the needs of the Israelis. It is equally important to note the actions being taken by the Israelis at this juncture are certainly understandable, but they are not likely to achieve the result which they desire which is the elimination of Hamas. In fact, it is likely that they are just creating a larger potential pool of recruits for Hamas in the future, as well as other organizations in Muslim countries. This could be a more dangerous outcome than the one they now faced. Then of course we have the issue of innocent Palestinians.
Job openings are up to 9.6 million in September, but jobs added were only 150,000. This is mixed news for employees, and to employers. If we are looking for new employees, that means that business is either growing or at least steady, and Joe Biden should be getting some credit for this as opposed to getting attacked by Republicans for the weak economy. In logical terms, the President shouldn’t get credit for a good or bad economy but that is not how our political system operates. It is hard to tell what the public thought process is and attitudes towards the “Biden economy” are confusing.
It looks like caucus Chair Representative Stefanik did not follow my advice on Jim Jordan. Mr. Jordan is now investigating the D.C. Attorney General and IRS as they investigate Leonard Leo. He really likes investigating investigations. So far, he has investigated 7 investigations, finding nothing of consequence. He does find what he really wants, which is press coverage. Ms. Stefanik allows this clown to waste millions. Speaker Johnson allows a third-party program to make sure he is not viewing anything inappropriate. Republicans have spent years howling about Hilary Clinton and others’ unsafe use of devices. Go figure.
Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.
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