As summer winds down and autumn begins, people across the region are wondering what this year’s fall foliage season will be like. WAMC North Country Bureau Chief Pat Bradley finds out what people who study trees and foliage anticipate.
Color changes can typically be spotted in the higher elevations of the Adirondack and Green Mountains beginning in mid to late August. There are already small patches of color and some trees are already dropping brown leaves.
SUNY Plattsburgh Center for Earth and Environmental Science Associate Professor and Forest Ecologist Dr. Mark Lesser says there are a number of factors that impact the timing and vibrancy of fall leaves.
“It’s driven by a lot of things, primarily by changes in day length, so shortening days and then really having cool evenings and nights.” Lesser continues, “But on top of that the prolonged drought this summer is potentially stressing a lot of the trees which means that the trees might just drop their leaves that are already brown instead of seeing those color changes.”
Northeast Regional Climate Center Director Dr. Art Degaetano says drought conditions across the region will be a factor in the annual autumnal color change.
“The main areas that we’re seeing drought in right now are actually northern New York into Vermont and into New Hampshire and then northern New England. Other areas of the region that have been fairly droughty are coastal Maine and parts of western New York,” Degaetano reports.”The areas that you’d typically think of in terms of the best foliage they have seen a fair amount of drought.”
Paul Smith’s College Professor emeritus of Forestry Randall Swanson says what colors emerge will depend on the severity of drought.
“Up here in Saranac Lake, Lake Placid area the drought hasn’t been real bad. So we’re looking at a likelihood of a really nice display,” Swanson observes. “The actual changing of the leaves what’s really helpful is to have sunny days and cool nights that will trap some of the sugars that are used for producing some of the reds and purples. The yellows and oranges they’re already there. They’re just being masked by the chlorophyll and as the tree shuts down, which is part of its normal process, that chlorophyll disappears and it reveals those underlying yellows and orange colors.”
Dr. Lesser doesn’t expect an earlier season but predicts less vibrancy.
“Because a lot of the leaves are already stressed out and wilting and browning due to the drought conditions that we’ve had over the summer. But I think we should still have some good colors,” Lesser predicts. “All of the trees are not stressed and it’s a species specific thing. And so there still will be some color. But I think it might be, because of the drought this year, more muted than it has been in many years.”
Vermont Department of Forest Parks and Recreation Forest Health Program Manager Josh Halman says the upcoming foliage season could be incredibly vibrant – depending on the location.
“There’s some areas where trees are growing in soils that are really rich and healthy and although there might be some drought stress around, their general health looks really good. And so those areas could be very vibrant," Halman explains. “We’ll see what the weather brings between now and the end of September. But there’s still plenty of hope for a vibrant fall foliage season.”
Lake Placid based Regional Office of Sustainable Tourism Chief Operating Officer Mary Jane Lawrence says fall foliage is a large part of the region’s tourism economy. ROOST tracks visitors to the region and there has been a drop in Canadian visitors this year.
“Overall they’re about 5 percent of our total market. New York, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Connecticut are our strongest fall markets.”
Swanson believes the vibrancy of fall leaves is often in the eye of the beholder.
“If it’s kind of cloudy and it’s overcast it just doesn’t have the same vibrancy as if you’re out there viewing on a day when the sun is hitting those leaves just in the right way and they almost look like they’re glowing.”
