The Republican announced on Fox Wednesday that he would seek a third term in his 17th District seat instead.
"I've decided the right thing to do for me and my family and my district is to run for reelection," said Lawler. "My seat was determinative of control of the House back in 2022 and again in 2024. I am one of only three Republicans that won a seat that Kamala Harris also won."
While Lawler was considering whether to challenge Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, President Trump endorsed him to run for Congress again. The 17th District, which includes parts of Rockland, Westchester and Putnam counties, is considered a swing district that Democrats could flip in 2026 to help them gain control of the House.
Even so, Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist University Institute for Public Opinion, says Lawler may have seen better odds running for Congress than for governor.
“Running statewide as a Republican for governor is always an uphill fight in New York," he notes. "There’s national interest in his trying to get reelected for Congress…and I think the national party was more interested in him doing that than taking what might be a longer shot at being governor.”
Already, at least half a dozen Democrats have lined up to potentially face Lawler. They include Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson, Tarrytown Trustee Effie Phillips-Staley, journalist Mike Sacks, Army veteran Cait Conley, former FBI analyst John Sullivan, and 914Cares Chairman Jessica Reinmann.
Speaking with WAMC, Davidson and Sacks appeared to welcome the news.
"This morning, Mike Lawler confirmed what we already knew, which is that he does whatever Donald Trump tells him to do," says Davidson. "So I welcome him to this race, and I welcome him to this fight, because he’s in for one.”
“He’s playing moderate up here while voting MAGA [in D.C.], and he can’t get away with it anymore," adds Sacks. "He’s tied to Trump’s mast, and now he wants to go down with the ship.”
Conley says she’s also not surprised by the decision, calling Lawler an “obedient lapdog to his DC bosses.” In a statement to WAMC, Sullivan adds in part: "Anyone who’s watched how Lawler has behaved in Congress for the last three years knew this would happen. Because whether it’s giving up his own ambition for higher office, or making life harder and less affordable for working families to pay for tax cuts for billionaire donors, there’s nothing that cowardly Mike Lawler won’t sacrifice to please Donald Trump."
Lawler has been ranked one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, but he’s had to walk a fine line regarding his support of President Trump. Lawler faced fierce pushback from residents at a string of combative town halls this year over his support of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act. Lawler says he voted for it, especially because of its tax provisions, including one that raised the cap on state and local tax deductions in New York. But he has broken with the administration at times, most recently by calling on the Department of Homeland Security to extend temporary protected status for Haitian refugees in Rockland County. DHS wants to terminate the designation early, effective September 2, but a federal judge recently ruled it must stay in place until at least February 3.
With Lawler not running for governor, it’s possible that North Country Congresswoman Elise Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman could launch gubernatorial bids. Stefanik has been weighing a potential run for months, after her nomination to be Trump’s UN ambassador fell through.
Miringoff says it’s too soon to tell whether either will run, or how they might fare against Hochul.
“The Republican candidate would like to avoid a primary that would sap resources. And I think a lot of it has to do with where Hochul’s standing as the incumbent. She appears to be vulnerable, and the numbers have not been great, and that’s been encouraging to Republicans," he explains. "But the midterm elections are a long way off, and traditionally [the governor’s race] tends to be a Democratic election, given that a Republican, Trump, is in the White House. In blue state New York, it might be even more of an uphill fight in a midterm election with a Republican president.”
Stefanik says she won’t decide whether she’s running until after this November’s elections.
Of course, Hochul doesn’t just face potential challenges from Republicans: she’s facing a Democratic Primary against her own lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado.
