With a future still uncertain days after the United States intervened in Israel's war against Iran, some U.S. lawmakers are hoping President Trump avoids a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. The White House on Tuesday asserted a ceasefire between Iran and Israel was in place.
To understand some of the many factors guiding Iran's actions, WAMC’s Lucas Willard spoke with Dr. Greg Nowell, an associate professor of international relations at the University at Albany on Monday.
With regard to the Fordow attack, I am…there have been for well over a century exaggerated claims about the capabilities of air power. Sometimes air power is critical and sometimes it isn't. And sometimes you do get that critical strike and sometimes you don't. I would be skeptical that, I mean, I would not be surprised if a year or two down the road, we find out that there was very little damage to the Iranian equipment. But let's just say, I mean, let's just say that it is. Well, they can try again, build more facilities deeper and also given Iran's importance to the supply of oil to China, for example, somebody may give them a helping hand. So why not just, ‘This is such a problem for you, you know, with the centrifuges and the purification and all the things you have to do, why not just buy some ready-made nukes?’ And there are some people I think that would be willing to provide those. So, whether it's five or 10 or 20, I don't know, but it's another way to approach the problem. So, to think that you can bomb your way out of this is not really, I think realistic position to have.
What are the chances, in your mind, that other nations, more nations will become involved in this conflict?
Well, that's one of the things that…you are pushing my analytical limits here. There are so many things going on right now that make no sense to me, that I don't even know where to begin, OK? So, we want to go to war, in the metaphoric sense, against China in the in the trade domain. And so, the first thing that happens is we antagonize our two major trading powers that we would definitely, definitely need to cobble together a coherent policy on trade. We would need them. We would need to bring them close to us and work very closely with them to pull that off. We are doing things in the domain of public health that make absolutely no sense, and basically could be characterized as suicidal. We are doing things in the domain of finance that are deeply mysterious to me, and now we have greatly antagonized our partners in NATO. And so I wouldn't be expecting much support from them. I guess maybe they would contribute some troops if they wanted to see if that gets on our good side. But certainly, nobody would count on it. And you got to remember, it's not just the damage that has occurred to our reputation in terms of these trade deals and alliances and that sort of thing. Remember the indignation of the United States in 1941 when Roosevelt gets out there and says, Yesterday, a day that will live in infamy, the Empire of Japan attacked the United States.’ And he then says the next sentence or two, ‘we were involved in negotiations. The negotiations had not concluded, and then they did this sneaky thing and attacked us.’ And so that was a sense of, you know, that was a big rallying cry for the United States. And now we are the ones that did that to Iran. We said that ‘let's talk this out for another two weeks.’ We did say that we were conducting negotiations with them. They were not, they were just a cover. And so, while we were conducting those negotiations, we were preparing an aerial attack, just like the Japanese. So, I mean, it could have been a plan put together by Admiral Yamamoto. So reputationally, I just don't think this is very good. For us. And I think that even more worrisome is we have a government which doesn't care about reputation.
Now, as far as the response from Iran goes and for what we have seen with the attacks on U.S. bases, do you think that the U.S., then, will respond in kind, if you will. And this will just become an escalating situation?
Well, it certainly has that potential. I mean, at this point, it would be crazy not to think that there are some wild cards in terms of the impact on the global oil market. I don't think it's going to be as bad as what happened after the initiation of after the hostilities in in 2001 2002 when Bush decided that we were going to go after Iraq. There are so many unknowns that I am at a loss. But I do think that our alliance structure is in tatters. In terms of the oil industry, things are not as bad as you might think. There are some people out there predicting $450 barrel oil or something like that, and I don't think that's going to happen. We have to remember that there are multiple routes for oil to leave this area of the world. Iraq has a pipeline which goes into Turkey and then cuts across to the Mediterranean. So, Iraqi oil can get out that way. Saudi Arabia has a backup pipeline which leads to the Red Sea, they can get oil through the backup pipeline. And Iran has a newly-completed rail line which goes all the way to China. And when push comes to shove, you can move a lot of oil by rail. And so, there's that option for them. So, if this war continues, I suppose the United States or Israel might start attacking Iranian rail lines to put them under economic pressure. Those are possible evolutions of the conflict. I don't think…OK, I mean, the things that sort of give me nightmares are that the Iranians want to make it known that they can make life difficult for us, so they will do something like attack the base in Qatar. But I am worried about terrorist attacks in Europe or the United States, which technically aren't terrorist attacks, because we're at war, but in any case, attacks inside the United States, which would be used by this current administration to repress dissent and attack the Democratic Party and intensify some of the trends we've already seen happening.
If the US and Israel do pursue a regime change in Iran, or if there is an exit after the strikes are completed, are there nations like Russia and China that want to see a damaged Iran run to them? What do you think is going to happen here as the strikes continue and other nations become involved, directly or indirectly?
Well, there has been, I mean, Iran and Russia have. Iran has been manufacturing some weapons for Russia and taking advantage of the Ukraine war to make a buck. I wouldn't put, if I were a betting man, I wouldn't put a lot of bet on a lot of money on the possibility of a Russian Iranian axis. There's just too much history. There of antagonism, a very deep history. Iran, in 1907 Russia divided Iran with the British Empire. They had the Anglo-Russian accord. And so, it doesn't have a lot of press in the United States, but it made a deep impression on the Iranians, I can tell you that. And so, Russia is a historic enemy of Iran, and it's a Christian/atheist country. So, I just, I don't see that being very durable. And in particular, Russia is over committed with the Ukraine war. So, they don't really have the resources to help Iran out that much short of providing nuclear weapons, which I don't think they will do. And so, of much greater interest to me is the development of an axis with China, this would provide them with an overland route to trade with Iran. Would provide China with access to a part of the global geography which has been very from which, from which, it is very isolated from the maritime point of view. OK, it's a long maritime route, and you have strategically difficult areas that you would have to pass through, but the overland route actually makes much more sense, and could develop, I think, very quickly, a train from Iran to China goes about twice as fast as a ship, so, covering, you know, from Iran to a Chinese port. So, I would think the thing to watch is a the potential for a Chinese axis.
