It’s a sunny afternoon in Rockland County, and roughly 100 voters have turned out to rally for Democrats in the 17th District. Former Congressman Mondaire Jones, a Democrat who won the seat in 2020 before redistricting, is encouraging supporters to get out the vote to defeat his opponent, first-term Republican Representative Mike Lawler.
Lynn Kestenbaum, a TV producer from Orangeburg, says she sees canvassing as a form of self-care.
“The day after the election, I don’t have to wake up and wonder what else I could have done and who else I could have tried to get to vote," she adds. "Because I think it’s a numbers game. And when Democrats vote, Democrats win.”
The 17th District has leaned blue for decades — but that changed in 2022. Redistricting, lower turnout, and a boost in messaging on crime helped GOP candidates flip a handful of congressional districts that year, including the 17th, securing a narrow House majority. Now, Democrats are trying to flip these seats back.
Lawler and Jones have duked it out in televised debates on everything from abortion rights to immigration, with both claiming to be the more moderate, bipartisan candidate.
The non-partisan Cook Political Report considered the 17th District a “tossup” until recently. It now leans in Lawler’s favor.
“I’m proud of my record. I’ve been praised by Joe Biden — and yes, Donald Trump — because I have been able to get things done," says Lawler.
Erin Covey, House editor for the Cook Political Report, says Jones could still pull out a win. But she says Lawler’s decision to brand himself as bipartisan early in his term has made him a tougher opponent than perhaps Democrats expected.
She predicts they’ll have an easier time in the 16th District, where Westchester County Executive George Latimer is competing against Republican Miriam Levitt Flisser. And a new poll from Emerson College puts 18th District Congressman Pat Ryan 9 percentage points ahead of his GOP opponent, former NYPD officer Alison Esposito.
“Ryan is in a pretty strong place as an incumbent, and I expect he will probably overperform here," says Covey. "He has a huge fundraising advantage over his Republican opponent, and as a result, you’re not seeing Republicans spend a lot of money here on campaign ads in the way that they’re spending in the 4th District, and the 17th District, and the 19th District.”
Ryan has raised nearly $7.4 million to Esposito’s $2.1 million, according to the Federal Election Commission.
There’s plenty happening at the state level, too. 100th Assembly District voters will choose between Democratic attorney Paula Kay and Wallkill Public Works Commissioner Louis Ingrassia Jr. to fill the seat left by Assemblymember Aileen Gunther, who announced plans to retire earlier this year. The 96th District is also up for grabs between Democrat Patrick Carroll and Republican Ronald Diz. Longtime Assemblyman Ken Zebrowski is not running for re-election, after taking a job at a lobbying firm.
And there’s a three-way race for the 42nd District in the State Senate. Democratic incumbent James Skoufis and Republican Dorey Houle are in a rematch with the addition of Conservative Party candidate Timothy Jon Mitts, after Mitts beat Houle in the Conservative primary over the summer.
“I don't owe anyone, whatsoever, anything," says Mitts. "I’m in [this race] because I want to be in it, not because I have to be in it."
Candidates across the aisle have rallied around the ballot question Proposition One, albeit for different reasons. Democrats say it would protect a greater share of the population from discrimination and enshrine abortion in the state constitution, while Republicans claim its protections for transgender individuals and youth would encroach on parental rights.
Prop One alone is unlikely to decide the vote. Covey says voters have a lot to think about this year.
“Immigration, and in particular, the way the influx of migrants in New York has impacted the state — that has become a bit more top of mind," she explains. "Abortion continues to be top of mind for voters, and of course, economic issues continue to be the number one issue across the country, including in New York.”
Back in Rockland County, at the Jones rally, 42-year-old Yvonne Johnson is preparing to knock on doors for the first time with her girlfriend. Johnson immigrated to the Hudson Valley from Jamaica more than 20 years ago in search of her picture of the “American Dream.” She says that picture has been clouded over by politics in recent years, and she’s hoping to catch a glimpse of it.
“It seems like such a tight race. I come out today in the spirit of trying to pick up others who might be in my position, who might have started this out feeling like they want to vote, and today, they’re not so sure," says Johnson. "So I’m out here for my community today.”
Early voting ends Sunday. Election Day is November 5.
