The non-partisan Cook Political Report has released the third installment of its 2024 Swing State Project Survey.
The poll of likely voters in seven swing states shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris holding an overall narrow lead of one percent over former Republican President Donald Trump.
The poll surveyed a cross section of nearly 3,000 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
For an update on the contest for the nation’s highest office, WAMC's Lucas Willard spoke with Cook’s Jessica Taylor…
I don't think it was a surprise that virtually every single swing state is within the margin of error. Now, in all but two states, Harris was ahead anywhere between one to three points. In North Carolina, the race was tied, and in Georgia, Trump led by two points. But again, all of these are within the margin of error, and it just shows us how close the electoral college is. But also, you know, what has clearly changed since July, of course, is that when it was President Biden topped the ticket, there was essentially one very narrow path to 270 and that was through the blue wall, states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska, second congressional district. There was no room for error. There remain multiple paths for both candidates.
How much did Kamala Harris's numbers tick up after President Biden dropped out of the race? When we talk about this widening path to victory here in the numbers, where does that bear out?
Well, when we tested the race in May, when it was between Trump and Biden, Trump was leading in every state and some by outside the margin of error. In North Carolina, Nevada, he was leading outside the margin of error. You know, when we last tested, then in August, when the race had changed, it was still very close to everywhere. So, I don't know that this race has moved much since August, but since July, obviously it has. And we've seen, certainly, Harris's approval ratings tick up, her favorability ratings tick up from when she was Vice President. And I think that fundamentally, a lot of voters don't think a lot about the Vice President, so she's been able to positively define herself, and she's also been able to notably cut into Trump's advantage on the economy, on inflation, and while immigration still remains really Democrats biggest hindrance when it comes to issues, that has also decreased as well when it comes to issues.
Do you think that this race could really rely on what's often referred to as single issue voters?
I mean, I think that what we have seen is that immigration and the economy remains one of the two top issues, really. But I think with the economy we have, Trump still holds an advantage overall, but Trump, but Harris, rather, has very much narrow differences when it comes to inflation. Our August polls showed that Trump had a six point advantage on inflation. Now that's even, you know, and so I think that those still remain the top issues, but there we are seeing increasing numbers of people that, you know, the abortion is a is an issue, protecting democracy is an issue. So I think that a lot of voters will weigh multiple concerns as well.
Now, I know it's not necessarily reflected in these numbers, but we recently had hurricane Helene sweep through a lot of swing states. Do you think that the response, federal government's response, and I know that the candidates have also visited damaged areas, that the hurricane could actually have an effect in some way on voter participation?
It could, you know, I think it's just too early to tell, and I think that rightly so, a lot of the efforts are just focused on rebuilding, making sure people are safe, making sure roads and things are rebuilt, to get critical supplies and things and for, you know, infrastructure, but also getting water and power restored to people, cleaning up floods. So, I think that it's just too early to tell. But certainly, you know, western North Carolina, parts of Georgia, two very critical swing states, were very much hard hit. So I think, I think clear that absolutely could play into things, but I'm not sure we know the full effect right now.
Does the polling show any evidence of the scandal surrounding Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson of North Carolina, did this scandal have any impact on changing people's minds in North Carolina when it comes to the presidential race?
Really not. You know, Harris was leading by one point in our poll in August, North Carolina, now it's tied. I do think that voters are differentiating between that. We polled the race for governor. The Democratic Attorney General, Josh Stein is ahead by 24 points. Stein is winning 19% of Republican voters and independents by 40 points. We do see a decline in ticket splitting. But the one place where ticket splitting is alive and well is in Governor races, where voters often vote for the party, for the person, rather than the party, as they do in Senate races. And North Carolina also has a history of splitting their tickets when it comes to governors. The past two cycles, the Democratic Governor Roy Cooper was elected and then reelected, even as Trump won the state. And I think with this scandal, thankfully for President Trump, former President Trump, so far, it does seem like voters are differentiating between the two.
Since 2020, when millions of Americans voted by mail in voting, and now looking at 2024, several states have reexamined their election laws. Do you think that changes to election laws will have a significant impact in 2024 versus turnout in 2020?
I mean, I think we're going to see fewer absentee votes than we did in 2020 just simply because we're no longer in a global pandemic. So a lot more people were voting absentee just for that reason. But, you know, with some states and like places like Georgia tightening their absentee ballot measures and when they can count those laws, so, I mean, we could see continued slow counting in places like Pennsylvania and Georgia, where we may not know…there's a very, very good chance that we might not know the outcome of those races on election night.
What about third party candidates in the presidential contest? I'm thinking Jill Stein and Cornel West and even Kennedy, who might still be on the ballot in some places. Will these candidates have an effect with such tight margins? Could they tip the scales in either direction, in swing states?
It could. And you know, when Kennedy remains on the ballot in places, Stein is on the ballot in some places. But I do think that there's a very good chance that this, and I think that's one reason why you saw Trump try to get Robert F Kennedy, Jr. in his camp. And the thing is that, you know, a lot of voters are unconvinced by both [major party candidates]. But you know, if, even if you like Trump's policies, maybe if you can't bring yourself to vote for him because of the things he says or does, you might be more inclined to vote for a party than to vote for Harris. And so, I think that that is a threat in there. But then there's also places where it could be a threat to Harris, like places like Michigan with a large number of Arab American voters, where there's a lot of, you know, a lot of people are upset with the administration's policy when it comes to the Middle East, Israel and Gaza. And so, you could see a protest vote there, that in a close place like Michigan could make a difference. You know, I think it's hard to poll these things when it comes to third party candidates, because often they poll higher than they end up getting. But we saw in both 2016, especially in 2016, but also in 2020, that in some places those third party margins were decisive.
Now it's only early October right now, but we've already received an October surprise, if you will, with special counsel Jack Smith alleging that President Trump may have resorted to crimes following the 2020 election. Are voters less swayed by these sort of large political scandal stories when it comes to President Trump?
I mean, I think that if you probably already weren't voting for President Trump, I'm not sure that these are going to sway you. But if you were on the fence, maybe it could remind you, you know, of what happened on January 6 and re-putting that into public consciousness. But again, in an election where minor swings could have an outsized impact, we don't know what could fully matter until we get to Election Day. And so, you know, the January 6 is not a winning issue for Trump when it comes to independent, those swing voters that he needs. So, I think anything that is back in the in the news about that is not necessarily a winning message for him when it comes to those voters.
Now, Jessica, I know you also specialize in in Senate polling, but what can you tell me about the Senate races right now? Are you anticipating in any change in the majority of the US Senate Republicans are increasingly favored to win the majority?
I think that you know, when we look at both the house, when we look at all three, the House, the Senate and the White House, the Senate is the one where Republicans are overwhelmingly favored. Really, Democrats hold a 51-49 majority, but it functionally starts at 50-50 because they are going to lose a seat in West Virginia with Democrat turned independent Joe Manchin retiring, and so that Democrats have an overwhelmingly defensive map where they're defending 23 seats to just 11 for Republicans, which means they can't lose any incumbents, and they need Harris to win the presidency. The most vulnerable seat is in Montana, with Jon Tester, who's facing a very much an uphill reelection fight in a state that President Trump won in 2020 by 16 points very well, could carry this time around by 20 points or more, we see a Tester as the underdog against his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, and that could be the majority right there. That means that Democrats may need to look for another seat. Increasingly, in Texas is one we view as increasingly competitive, but also watching in Florida, and there's also an interesting scenario in Nebraska with an independent. On the ballot who's getting some support from Democratic money groups and things. But even beyond just Montana, Ohio remains incredibly vulnerable for Democrats in a state that Trump won in 2016 and 2020 by eight points. And then there are states that we are seeing tightening that overlap with presidential battlegrounds in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
With about a month to go until election day, what do you anticipate the presidential candidates to be doing? Is it possible that they may even have time to step outside the seven swing states in the run up to November?
I mean, I think it would be wise for them to really, to just focus on those states. But you never know. I mean, we've seen President Trump go different places. I think the Harris campaign, you know, Trump has gone to New York and different things. And he went to Montana, which, of course, was more driven toward the Senate race and things. But I do think, you know, the Trump campaign, when it was Biden, they were talking about sort of these expansion states like Virginia and New Mexico and Minnesota. Those are off the table now. I think again, it comes down to sort of these core states, and I think you're going to see them continue to making a lot, continue to make a lot of visits to Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
