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U.S.-Canada expert discusses cross border relationship

Center for the Study of Canada at SUNY Plattsburgh
Pat Bradley
/
WAMC
Center for the Study of Canada at SUNY Plattsburgh

SUNY Plattsburgh’s Center for the Study of Canada is hosting a series of discussions with experts on Canada and U.S. relations. On Thursday the conversation focused on key trends affecting the two countries’ relationship.

The Center for the Study of Canada’s latest “Conversations on Canada Series” assessed the diplomatic relationship between the U.S. and Canada, the impact of deglobalization, U.S. protectionism and economic competition with countries such as Russia and China.

President Joe Biden’s first official trip to Canada starting March 23rd highlighted the two countries’ foreign policy relationships, particularly in trade and immigration.

University of Quebec Director of the Center for U.S. Studies and chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies Dr. Frederick Gagnon says the visit was a reminder of how relations have changed since the 2020 election.

“If Donald Trump had been elected to a second term I think we can agree that he would not have made such a cordial visit to Ottawa. Actually he did not come to Canada’s capital during his presidency. And if Trump were president right now I think it might have been more difficult for (Prime Minister Justin) Trudeau to negotiate a deal to close Roxham Road. You know it’s a very important issue here in the area. Trump would probably still be attacking Trudeau personally or Canada’s unfair trade practices on social media and in public. So Biden’s visit to Ottawa last week reminded everyone that one of the highlights of Canada-U.S. relations these days is probably the return to calm after the Trump storm.”

Gagnon says the U.S.-Canada relationship is driven by two trends. One marks the uncertainties of the Trump presidency and the other motivates stronger collaboration between the two countries.

“The first trend is what I call the growing U.S. appetite for deglobalization that I think is evident since at least the 2016 election in the U.S. It’s an appetite that’s not going away. I think it’s still there and I think that it still guides many policies, many of Biden’s policies towards Canada.”

Gagnon continues that the second trend is shifting global power.

“While the U.S. appetite for deglobalization creates various frictions between Canada and the U.S. I will argue that the rise of great power rivalries with Russia and China has the opposite effect, prompting Bident to look more to its key allies including Canada to counterbalance U.S. major rivals. It’s difficult to know which trend will prevail over the other over the next few years, but the meeting between Trudeau and Biden last week certainly shows that Biden sees Canada as more of an asset than was the case with Trump.”

Gagnon says which trend prevails will depend on several factors over the next few years.

“Among the factors that will be interesting to watch is first of all if there’s a recession in the United States. The state of the economy in the U.S. will be a key factor to follow I think if you want to know for instance if there is a further appetite for deglobalization. Another factor to watch will of course be the outcome of the presidential election in 2024.”

The Center for the Study of Canada will host Laval University professor of American literature Dr. Jean-Philippe Marcoux for its distinguished Fulbright chair lecture on Wednesday, April 5th.