Three weeks before Election Day New York Governor Kathy Hochul holds a 52% to 41% lead over her Republican opponent, Long Island Congressman Lee Zeldin. That's accordingto a new Siena College Research Institute poll, but Zeldin is making gains in some areas of the state. For analysis, WAMC's Ian Pickus spoke with Siena's Steve Greenberg.
How has the race changed since the last Siena poll?
Well, in the last three weeks, the race has tightened a little bit. It's still a double-digit lead 11 points, as you noted, but it's down from a 17-point lead Hochul had three weeks ago when it was 54% to 37%. And where did we see movement? Two places really. One is Republicans, right now Republicans are with Zeldin, 81% to 12%, up from 77% to 17%. So, solidifying that Republican base important, particularly because Republicans are so outnumbered, compared to Democrats in New York State. And then among independent voters, Zeldin extended his narrow three-point lead last month to now a nine-point lead, 49% to 40% for Zeldin among Independent voters. So, the race is tightened. But we’ve got to remember, this is a state where 50% of the enrolled voters are Democrats, only 22% of Republicans. In fact, there are more Independents at 23% of the enrolled voters than there are Republicans in New York. So, the task for Zeldin is he's got to do even better with Independents. 49% among Independents is not enough for a Republican to overcome that enrollment disadvantage and he's got to start biting into Hochul’s support among Democrats. Right now, Hochul has an 84% to 10% lead among Democrats and given how many more Democrats there are in this state than Republicans, a Republican statewide candidate has to do better than 10% among Democrats.
So, as we speak here in mid to late October, you would still much rather be where Kathy Hochul is in this poll than where Lee Zeldin is?
Absolutely. Look, momentum in campaigns is important, just like it is in sports, but momentum can only carry you so far. He closed the gap 6-points, from a 17-point deficit to an 11-point deficit over the last three weeks. But he's still facing an 11-point deficit going into the final three weeks of the campaign and he remains, you know, unknown to 1 in 5 voters, 21% of voters have either never heard of Zeldin or don't know enough about him to have an opinion. And among those who have heard of him are sort of split and leaning negative. Only 37% of voters have a favorable view of Zeldin. 41% have an unfavorable view. 41% of voters also, by the way, have an unfavorable view of Hochul, but she's doing better on the favorable side 45% view her favorably. So, Zeldin has got a huge task in front of him. So, would I rather be 11-points up, 3 weeks out from election day than 11 points down every time?
Let's talk about the different geographic regions of New York State. Where is Zeldin’s strength? Where is Hochul’s strength?
Sure, well, Hochul’s strength obviously comes where every statewide democratic strength comes from and that's New York City. Right now, in New York City voters, 70% with Hochul, 23% with Zeldin. Little changed from last month when it was 70% to 20%. Downstate suburbs flipped. Last month they were favoring Hochul by five points, 50% to 45%. Now they favor Zeldin by four points, 49% to 45%. So very tight in the suburbs, and upstate even tighter. Last month, Zeldin had a paper thin 1-point lead 45% to 44% upstate. It's grown slightly and he has a four-point lead among upstate voters, 48% to 44%.
What about the other statewide races? Democrats seem to be doing pretty well in all those too, right?
Yeah. Well, what's interesting is we have four statewide races in New York. Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller and of course United States Senator. Two of those races are in the low double digits, two of those races are 20 points plus. So, the Attorney General's race is one that looks like the gubernatorial race. Right now, Letitia James, the incumbent Democrat, has an 11-point lead, 51% to 40% over her Republican challenger, Michael Henry and that is down from 16-point lead that James had over Henry last month. So, those two races tightened. The other two races, the race for Comptroller and U.S. Senate did not. So, right now, Tom DiNapoli, the Incumbent Democratic Comptroller, leads his Republican challenger, Paul Rodriguez by 24-points, 54% to 30%. Up a point from when it was 50% to 29% last month, and Senator Schumer who is seeking a fifth term to the United States Senate has a 20-point lead 57% to 37% over Joe Pinion, his Republican challenger last month. That was a 19-point lead. So, we see two of the Democratic candidates each pick up a point, lead by 20 or more points. We saw two of the Democratic candidates lose a few points, 5 or 6 points and now have 11-point races. What's the difference in those four races? Independent voters. We were just talking about Independents on the gubernatorial race. They give Zeldin, the Republican and 9-point lead in the race for Attorney General, they give Henry the Republican a 10-point advantage. But in the other two races, Schumer, the Democrat leads among Independents by eight points and DiNapoli leads among Independents by 12-points.
So, based on this poll, it seems that if any Republican is going to break a 20-year statewide losing streak, it might be on Zeldin to do it.
You know, it would appear at the top of the ticket, it would be the best shot but again, as you point out, no Republican has won in this state, statewide in two decades. Since George Pataki won his third term back in 2002, and it is a serious uphill climb for any Republican to win statewide, given how blue New York has become, even more so in the last two decades.
What about the Environmental Bond Act?
Well, right now, it has a 2-1 support, 54% of likely voters say they're going to vote yes on the Bond Act, 26% say they're going to vote no. Virtually unchanged from last month when it was 55% to 26%. We still have 8% of voters who tell us they are not going to vote on that ballot issue, and we have 12% of voters who are still undecided. Big yes, more than three quarters of Democrats support it. No from Republicans, 52% to 23%. Independent’s support or at least a plurality of Independents do 47% to 32%. Huge support, more than two thirds in New York City, 46% to 36% support, so narrower 10-point margin in the downstate suburbs and a little bit wider upstate 48% of upstaters say they're going to vote yes, 32% say they will vote no.
You know, it's interesting, the poll notes that in the latest poll 52% of New Yorkers told you that the state's going in the wrong direction, which, you know, that does not bode well for any incumbents. But on the other hand, all the incumbents that you polled are leading the race.
Well, yeah, that is one indicator, but you got to look beyond that. So right now, 52% of New Yorkers think the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to only 39% who think we're on the right track. That's down a little bit from last month, or a little bit worse from last month when it was 41% right track, 47% wrong direction. But there's also a wide partisan divide, 61% of Democrats think the state is on the right track, but an overwhelming 87% of Republicans, and a clear majority of 56% of Independents think the state is headed in the wrong direction.
