Sometimes lawyers want to holler what seems like the obvious truth. But beware the reactions.
I’ve considered the possibility that Biden and Israel should have called Hamas’ bluff by promising to let relief supplies in whenever the hostages were released and returned, which is similar to proposals being considered at the UN.
I’ve also considered making our aid and military supplies to Israel contingent on getting and keeping so-called “settlers” out of the West Bank. That’s been official American policy for years but telling Netanyahu that has never been enough.
However, Biden’s working for regional peace, preferably a two-state solution – much bigger goals that would be much better for this country. Both Israel and Hamas have rejected it, but nothing short of a two-state solution, proposed in a 1947 UN resolution, can lead to lasting peace in the area or get the US out of constant Middle Eastern battles.
So it’s crucial to understand the impact of proposals. A cease-fire for hostage release deal, if it worked, would take the pressure off both sides for reaching a two-state solution and create the opportunity to rearm and renew violence. Threatening to withdraw support for Israel over the “settler” issue would invite more Hamas attacks whether it succeeded for failed.
We have significant power over Israel, but, once issued, ultimatums will no longer work as bargaining chips for a deal to settle the regional dispute. Israel has been trying to incorporate the entire West Bank by “settling” it. Hamas, instead of a two-state solution, has been committed to crushing Israel and eliminating any homeland for the Jewish people forced out of Europe by the Holocaust. Both sides need to change their behavior for peace to be possible, which is the objective of a regional, preferably two-state, solution. Throttling either side in advance takes any deal off the table.
Biden’s been avoiding careless choices that could compromise regional peace. Diplomats aren’t wimps – they know what they can give and threaten in high-stakes negotiations and when to play which cards.
Biden’s looking for more than making Israel wise up and behave. Israel has longstanding diplomatic and commercial relations with Egypt and Jordan. The Abraham Accords widened those relationships without getting the full regional settlement Biden’s looking to nail down. Unilateral ultimatums outside of peace negotiations could make peace impossible and threaten millions of lives in the process. So it’s important that he stay focused on the regional goal.
Negotiations require much more than what everybody thinks they know about all the various parties. Diplomats have to make everyone believe they’re being treated with respect. Otherwise, angry people resist settlements and often fight on blindly when they should be calculating carefully.
A smarter, more patriotic and less impulsive president than Trump was could have kept Iran in check, and made the Middle East much friendlier. Biden is showing how a smart president, with lots of experience in foreign affairs, with foreign players and the process of negotiation, may be able to do more for international peace than an impulsive armchair diplomat.
It's a separate question whether the public will be able to appreciate and give Biden credit for what he’s trying to do. I hope Biden can stick to his guns and get the job done. That will be a diplomatic feat worthy of much honor.
Steve Gottlieb’s latest book is Unfit for Democracy: The Roberts Court and The Breakdown of American Politics. He is the Jay and Ruth Caplan Distinguished Professor Emeritus at Albany Law School, served on the New York Civil Liberties Union board, on the New York Advisory Committee to the U.S. Civil Rights Commission, and as a US Peace Corps Volunteer in Iran.
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