With primary day in the books, the general election ballot in Massachusetts has taken shape.
Among the statewide contests - Democratic Governor Maura Healey will face Republican Mike Minogue, while Democratic U.S. Senator Ed Markey will face a familiar Republican candidate in John Deaton. Both races also have independent challengers, as well.
WAMC spoke with Western New England University political science professor Tim Vercellotti about the races ahead.
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While some more regional primaries down the ballot in the Massachusetts primary proved to be closer, the statewide races offered few surprises Tuesday night, says Vercellotti.
A professor at WNE with an extensive history in political science and analysis - who also led the university’s polling institute - he says it was really a matter of by how much Ed Markey might beat Seth Moulton in the senate primary and Mike Minogue would beat Brian Shortsleeve.
The latter race featured Minogue winning 76% of the vote. It also featured what will likely be some of Minogue’s strongest assets going into November – money-on-hand and his reputation as a CEO.
“Mike Minogue was on TV early – he has spent, since the beginning of the calendar year, about $6.4-6.5 million on the race, and so, he would be very difficult to catch, given that kind of advantage,” he said. “And his personal story of someone who had served in the military, who had been an entrepreneur and led a very successful medical device company - that's really the kind of story that resonates not just with the Republican base, but with unenrolled voters who might have pulled a Republican ballot in the primary.”
Speaking with WAMC, Minogue touched on that in the days leading up to the primary – while also re-emphasizing what’s become a hallmark of his campaign: spotlighting affordability issues in the Commonwealth. Specifically, high utility bills for which he faults the Healey administration.
“She has not led on energy - we need natural gas pipelines, that's why our energy costs are so high and she says she's for it, even though she stopped it,” Minogue said outside of a campaign event in Agawam. “She submitted a letter to the legislature demanding swift action two weeks ago. Nowhere in the letter does she mention natural gas pipelines, and people understand that's how you're going to get our electricity costs down, off of 39 cents-per-kilowatt-hour, that's it's common sense.”
It’s to be expected, Vercellotti says. The message has broad appeal – no one likes higher bills.
This, as Minogue balances a number of challenges any Republican trying to run for statewide office in Massachusetts might face – especially when they’re not former Republican Governor Charlie Baker.
“[Minogue] is not of the mold of Charlie Baker and Mitt Romney, the kinds of ‘Chamber of Commerce Republicans’ that unenrolled voters and some conservative Democrats might have supported, thinking, ‘Well, the governor's office is not really an ideological office.’” the professor said. “We haven't had much in the way of culture wars in our gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts - it's really about policy and competence and service delivery. What separates Mike Minogue from other Republicans who've been successful running for governor is that he gives a lot of money to Republican causes - he hosted a big fundraiser for J.D. Vance in the fall 2024 presidential campaign.”
Ultimately, the former Abiomed CEO earned 192,000 votes Tuesday.
Healey, meanwhile, did not have a primary opponent. Still, she has been campaigning all the same, including mid-August stops in Holyoke and Springfield.
“We’ve got to work together! I’m proud of the last three years - we've been able to do some things: free community college, which is fantastic, so many people going back to school. We're building 100,000 homes so that we can lower rents and housing costs,” Healey said to a downtown Springfield restaurant loaded with local leaders on Aug. 15. “We're getting rid of co-pays and deductibles and prior authorizations to make it easier for people to access the care that they need…”
Affordability has also been central to the Healey re-election bid.
Tax cuts early in her administration, actions taken to reduce utility bills and other efforts are part of the pitch – all the while, Vercellotti says, re-election polling has largely been in the governor’s favor – though her approval numbers don’t enjoy the same gap.
“If you look at the polling in the race, when you do a matchup of Healey and Minogue, she's very comfortably ahead. The most recent poll in late-August, from the University of New Hampshire had Healey at 54% [and] Minogue at 30%, and we’re two months out from the general election and early voting were probably … about six weeks out. That's a huge gap for Minogue to close,” he said. “What Healey has to do is two things: she's got to talk about her achievements and then say that she gets it - it's not enough: people are hurting, and here's what she wants to do if she gets another term in office.”
“Cost of living is the most important problem cited in polling in Massachusetts. Healey’s job approval is 50% approve - 48% disapprove. She's certainly not in significant danger of losing at this point, but she's got to make a case so that people are excited about coming out to vote as well,” he continued. “We saw somewhat lower voter turnout in the primary than what we've seen in previous primaries involving statewide elections - Healey's got to not just inspire and reassure people that she knows what they're going through and that she's made some progress - she and her organization and the Massachusetts Democrats have to get the vote out.”
During her stump speech in Springfield, the governor also invoked President Donald Trump, touching on federal actions that have impacted the state’s economy and key business sectors.
With the president’s approval ratings in the low 30s, Vercellotti says it’s an albatross the governor’s party has been trying to hang on Minogue’s neck – and that how he maneuvers around that is a “big question moving forward.”
“The Massachusetts Democratic Party has set up a website, ‘Meet MAGA Mike,’ where they are drawing all of these connections between Mike Minogue and the Trump administration. Minogue, for his part, if you visit his campaign website, you see there is no mention of the Republican Party: it is autobiographical in nature, in terms of his life story, which is a very inspirational American story of service in the military, of success in business, and the issues that he is emphasizing are the issues that a lot of voters in Massachusetts have been putting at the top of their list: affordability, cost of living, the cost of housing. So, he will be speaking to the issues that are real weaknesses for Maura Healey at the moment, and he'll try to pull away from a discussion of Trump at every opportunity. His web page does not mention the word ‘Republican’ and the color scheme is blue. And so, a voter looking for information would have to do some research to identify that Mike Minogue is the Republican nominee. The Massachusetts Democratic Party will be only too happy to help voters connect the dots.”
In the state’s senate race, the President is also technically an issue for Republican candidate John Deaton, as well. The lawyer who tried challenging Elizabeth Warren in the last cycle has also emphasized he’s never voted for Trump.
According to Vercellotti – one of Deaton’s biggest challenges at the moment is simply re-introducing himself.
“He’s got to reintroduce himself to the voters - Markey has had the benefit of wall-to-wall coverage of the primary, and as an incumbent senator, he's already got very high name recognition,” Vercellotti said. “[One] UNH poll… when they measured favorability for John Deaton, 48% of registered voters could not offer an opinion, and this is someone who's already run once statewide. The UNH poll had him down 19 points to Markey, and so, John Deaton has some work to do to introduce or, in this case, reintroduce himself to Massachusetts voters.”
While speaking with WAMC post-primary, Deaton says he’s aware of those polls and more – including another UNH poll that showed him leading slightly with independents.
“The reality is - I'm not delusional. I know what the uphill battle is for me, here in Massachusetts and I tell everyone the truth, which is there is a narrow uphill path to victory,” Deaton said in a phone interview, stressing a platform that includes supporting term limits and what he considers anti-corruption measures. “It is not the widest path and it is uphill, but there is one. I wouldn't be running if [there] was a zero-chance of winning. I'm not interested in going from 40.4% to 47% and being like, ‘Oh, look, I improved.’ I’m really in it to try to win, and the only way you can is not just by independents/unenrolled in Massachusetts, but… trying to reach even some Democrats.”
As for Markey, Vercellotti says, there’s not much to be said, other than the fact that the 80-year-old incumbent likely won’t be letting his guard down.
This, after the incumbent dominated his primary opponent, Congressman Seth Moulton – about 65-35%. As Markey told reporters after a July debate between him and Moulton in Chicopee, this re-election campaign is slated to be the senator’s last.
“I need one more term to finish the agenda - this progressive agenda - and then I will step down,” he said. “But, we need to complete the agenda. We need Medicare for All, we need a Green New Deal. We need to make sure that we are fighting for every family who is out there who justifiably feels that they have been left behind, so.”
Deaton tells WAMC that multiple senate debates could come together– with a hope of landing one in western Massachusetts as well. It’s not immediately clear if a western Mass. hosted debate is in the cards for the governor’s race, either.
At the end of the day, Vercellotti says, expect to see the general election candidates swooping through western Mass. all the same.
As has been the case historically, the lion’s share of the votes are ultimately on the other side of the state. But, if a race ends up being close – name recognition in the Pioneer Valley and Berkshires doesn’t hurt.
“The four counties of Western Massachusetts comprise about 12-13% of the electorate, and so, it is enough of a critical mass that the candidates really can't write us off,” the WNE professor stated. “They've got to spend some time out here and be familiar with the area. I watched each of the Markey-Moulton debates and, despite making multiple visits to Western Mass., Moulton kept talking about ‘going out west’ when he was coming to Western Massachusetts, and to those of us who live out here, when we think about going out west, we think of tumbleweeds and the O.K. Corral - it just made it sound like this region was so exotic and foreign.”
“Statewide candidates really need to feel at home here and convey not just that they're familiar with our issues and our concerns, but also that they're going to come back if they win elected office. And so, in a tight race, the votes in Western Massachusetts can make a big difference. These do not seem like tight races at this point, but candidates don't want to leave anything to chance, and hence, we see folks coming out here,” he continued. “The real test will be if whoever wins the election - do they establish district offices in Springfield and/or Pittsfield, and do they really pay attention once the election is over? And that's something we'll see. But, I think we should all welcome it. I’m happy to have the candidates come by. Governor Healey stopped at a coffee shop about two blocks from my house a couple weeks ago - that's the best part about retail politics. I hope we see a lot of all of these people in the coming weeks.”
