First-term Republican Congressman John Faso holds a slim lead in New York’s 19th Congressional district, according to a Siena College/Spectrum poll released Thursday night.
Faso leads Democrat Antonio Delgado by five points among likely voters in the Siena Research Institute poll. Siena’s Steve Greenberg places that lead within a 4.8 percent margin of error. "Faso leads Delgado 45 to 40 percent among likely voters. There are still 14 percent of voters in the 19th Congressional District who are undecided.
Greenberg says poll shows Faso, of Kinderhook, has "a real race on his hands." "Delgado is doing really well with Democrats. He has support of 81 percent of Democrats. Faso, almost as strong among Republicans. He has the support of 76 percent. And Faso has a small six-point lead, 44 to 38 percent among independent voters."
The poll did not factor in Green Party candidate Steve Greenfield. Greenberg notes that voters 55 and older are evenly divided between Faso and Delgado, while those under 55 are solidly behind Faso. Faso has a break-even favorability rating and is unknown to one-quarter of voters. Delgado has a 12-point net positive favorability rating but is unknown to 44 percent of voters. "Women — they're for Delgado by nine points, men are with Faso by 21 points. And when we look at it geographically, the Hudson Valley portion of the district, Ulster/Dutchess, Delgado has a 13-point lead. In the Southern Tier portion of the district encompassing Broome, Delaware, Otsego and Sullivan counties, Faso leads by 23 points. And in the more Capital Region area, Columbia, Greene, Montgomery, Rensselaer and Schoharie counties, Faso has a 17-point lead, 53 to 36."
Both sides declined to discuss the poll, but provided written statements.
- The Faso camp said, “After Democratic candidates collectively spent over $8 million dollars in their primary falsely smearing Congressman Faso, we are very pleased with our lead in this race. John Faso has worked across party lines to deliver real results for Upstate seniors, veterans and farmers. It is critical we continue to have a Congressman who makes a difference in the lives of Upstate voters, and the numbers clearly show that voters agree. John is ranked as the 18th most bipartisan member of Congress (according to the Lugar Center and Georgetown University). It is obvious that despite the false narrative being painted by Nancy Pelosi and Washington, D.C. Democrats, Congressman Faso is well-positioned to win this November.”
- Delgado's campaign responded:"As Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said, Faso has a “real race on his hands.” Great to learn that ten weeks from Election Day the incumbent here has only been able to secure a minor five point lead in a poll with a margin of error of 4.8%. I am not surprised by these results as I hear all across our district from people who feel John Faso does not represent them, especially on healthcare. Faso voted in favor of gutting protections for people here with pre-existing conditions, cruelly stripping away funding for Medicaid, and increasing out-of- pocket costs. That's not something folks forget. Let’s keep working!"
Again, Steve Greenberg: "How do voters in the 19th feel about the next Congress? Do they wanna see the Congress that takes office in January be controlled by the Democrats or the Republicans? Well, just as these voters give John Faso a five-point lead by a five-point margin, 48 to 43 percent, voters say they would like to see the Republicans seize control of the House."
WAMC political observer Dr. Alan Chartock says the elections are still up for grabs. "Right now, the pollsters with five percent, it sounds sort of right to me, are going to have to try to anticipate who's gonna come out and vote, because polls don't mean a thing based on what the eventual outcome will be. You'd rather be five points ahead than five points behind, that's for sure. On the other hand, we saw Ocasio-Cortez in her district, in her fight against Crowley, reversing that poll by 50 points. Think about that. 50 percentage points. That's extraordinary. So anything can happen."