Nearly 90 percent of school districts in New York state are experiencing a decline in student enrollment. That’s according to a new Cornell University study, which examined enrollment data from 2013-2014 to the 2023-24 school year.
At the same time, while only 1.8 percent of New York students are homeschooled, that rate is twice the percentage from a decade prior. A similar dynamic is playing out at charter schools, where enrollment more than doubled to 6.5 percent.
To learn more, WAMC's Lucas Willard spoke with Leslie Reynolds, a Cornell research support specialist. I asked if the public school enrollment data follows similar trends in statewide population decline.
There's often a question of, you know, is the enrollment decline happening because of COVID based trends? But really it was a longer standing trend and driven by, like you said, the declining population and the decreasing fertility, so having fewer babies and also waiting later to have babies, and therefore fewer. So, there's fewer children being born, and there's also an aging population. And so, what you have for the population change, we like to call the balancing equation, birth, deaths and migration, and you can apply that to age groups as well. So, if you have your zero-to-four-year-olds, the kids that you would have going into school, if you're having fewer births in an area, you'd have to make up for that in migration or people with children moving in. And if you don't have that there, you would see a declining K 12 population as well. So, we do see that as part of a longer-term trend and very much entwined with the large-scale demographics of the state as well.
What stands out to me in this report is the increases that we see in both charter school enrollment and homeschooling rates. Through your analysis, have you determined any likely cause as to why parents might be moving away from public school?
It's hard to pinpoint a cause, especially in research, where we like to have a research question for every single topic, or, you know, you want to find out, so you plan methodology just for that. But we think of as a general cause. I know I said that COVID wasn't the cause of the trends in terms of numbers, but it doesn't mean it didn't have a social or cultural impact. So, I think part of it, at least recently, is the growing choice, and we had some social changes during that time that have changed the way we work and the way we learn, and increase the possibilities. You know, we can homeschool more, we can do virtual learning, or you can do hybrid learning, even at public schools. And I think there's also been a growth in charter schools in general, and there may be offering choices or programs that the public schools don't have in their area. So, I think growing choice is the biggest part, but it's hard to pinpoint exactly you know when or for what reason, especially when there's so much variation among districts, too. So even these big trends that we see some districts experience them in different ways, and could be entirely opposite. There could be growth in an area or entirely reliant on charter schools, so it's really dependent on the area. But I think…
Well, I'm also reminded that this is a time where a lot of politicians are trying to champion the issue of school choice. It's become a political platform among many, among those who are seeking office and those who hold office as well. So, is there any sign that that kind of political language is driving parents to make any decisions about where their children receive their education?
It's definitely hard to tell from a researcher's standpoint, but I think that's all part of the cultural and social inputs that we get. And I think people have their own priorities when looking at schools, and that's influenced by your social needs and political opinions. And so it's hard, it's impossible, to completely separate those things. And I think trends are often driven by that, political and social factors, as well. It's hard to say exactly, but I think that the agency of where to go has been increasing for a while, and so I think it's an important topic.
Now, charter and homeschooling rates. Are they increasing in other areas in the country as well? We're talking in this report about the New York State numbers. But did you or your team look at how New York compares with other states when it comes to enrollment in non-public school?
No, I haven't, I am quite sure. Well, I've looked at other research about charter schools, and I think it's a national increase in charter school enrollment, but I didn't look at the differences across states. This was just focusing on New York State and then the districts within it, when we could.
Now, I also want to talk about statewide graduation rates, which is also part of this report, as well. What can you tell me about the trends in graduation rates in New York?
Sure. Well, we've seen a gradual increase over the last 12 years or so. So, it rose seven percentage points over the past decade, so going from 79% in 2013-2014 to 86.3% in 2023 2024. And it was interesting to me when doing this report, and I'm not sure if this is a well-known observation for people who do more work in education, but that girls in New York State had a higher graduation rate than boys, and that followed the increasing graduation rate as well. So, there are two parallel lines, basically, with the boys graduation rate starting at around 77% and going up to about 82 with the female going from 83% to about 90% so there it was kind of an overall growth, but to see that difference for girls and boys was interesting to me.
Sure, and the report also includes rankings on how school districts themselves actually spend their money, how they utilize their school budgets. What can you tell me about some of the areas where schools may actually spend the most money? What have been the highest expenses for school districts, and does that also follow trends that we've seen over the last several years?
Yeah, that's a nuanced question as well. And so, we looked at the top five for specific expenditures, and we picked kind of the largest, or what you would expect the largest being instructional and transportation. And there's also some nuance in the way these are calculated as well. And so, Hempstead stands out as the top instructional expenditure. So, 70% of their total expenditures are spent on instruction. But, so, we looked into this for other factors during the analysis, as well. And they actually have a larger virtual and hybrid learning than other school districts. And I can't remember the exact number, but it was they ranked highest in that as well. So, if you have over half of your instruction being virtual, then that's what you would spend the most money on, because you have to pay your teachers, but you might not have as many physical or building costs or transportation, because if you can have fewer places to transport, you can have fewer busses, or if it's mostly for home. So, all of those kind of go together, but also the transportation. East Ramapo and Cheektowaga both spend about 15% of their total expenditures on transportation, and so that could speak to the distance or how far they have to go, or maybe just how many busses they need. And so, we liked pointing these out, just to kind of draw attention to different issues and maybe spur on some additional research questions or places of interest for future research.
